OK Freep, here's my guide right now without regard to targets.
Sentiment swings are too rapid. It warns me that a sustained move will be hard to birth right here.
The charts have all pushed to heavy resistance, but most have not probed over -- in other words, the decline from here would be too pat.
The wave out of the consolidation (Oct 12-31) looks incomplete to me target-wise. The alternative, held by some netizens I respect, is that it's a failure of sorts and we are headed into ugly decline. I don't buy that argument here.
One more run would cement bullish sentiment I think, at least enough to allow a good down move. I firmly believe, that in any case, this is the end-game of this move. Sure it could rise some more, but I will be shorting every decent push.
I am holding my 1/2 short position because I think that there is a good chance that the decline begun yesterday will show some follow-through. I would think it lasts into Monday/Tuesday-monring. It's difficult to see us rising from there because it will screw the option writers (i.e., max-pain), but that's what I see right now.
If we hit S&P 1140/45, I'll be all over it. |
