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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Lucretius who wrote (133654)11/9/2001 9:04:38 AM
From: Tommaso  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
As the years go by I put less and less faith in any criteria for predicting the economic future, but the classic Friedman money-supply theory agrees with your estimate for the onset of inflation, of course.

But the world-wide appetite for dollars seems insatiable, and if people keep squirreling them away as a store of value, that could delay the inflation.

I guess the Fed is thinking about how, in the 1930s, even an overnight 75% devaluation of the dollar (by repricing gold from $20 to to $35 an ounce) did not stimulate economic activity very much, so they are trying to stop deflation before it can get started.

Now I am ready to make a fearless prediction. I predict that some things will change drastically, some things will change somewhat, and some things will not change at all. <g>
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