AD,
In this environment, predictions as to what fab utilization levels will be in 12 months out are about as useful as predictions as to what DRAM pricing will be 12 months out. In any environment, it's a guessing game; but in this environment, where we have not yet seen the effects of the economic and fiscal stimulus, making predictions at the very bottom is a fool's game IMHO, though I will continue to post, since that is really all we have. I value the thoughts of STMicroelectronics Dauvin(quoted in one of the articles), since he has been more accurate than most that I have followed, and he will make predictions, even very unpopular ones, without hesitation.
Assuming the stimulus kicks in, I believe the SCE sector will make a sharp upswing as nobody wants to be left standing at the station with a ticket in hand but no seat. These stocks move well in advance of the fundamentals, as we witnessed last year when AMAT started to crater while still reporting record earnings and revenue. As for me, I have my ticket and I am waiting patiently in my seat for the conducter to announce "all aboard":-)
Regards,
Brian |
