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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (4379)11/10/2001 7:49:47 AM
From: s berg  Read Replies (1) of 99280
 
Zeev,
The recessions associated with bear markets are 5/29/46-6/13/49, 12/3/68-5/26/70, 1/11/73-12/6/74, 4/27/81-8/12/82 and 7/16/90 - 10/11/90. Notice how most people and even fed minutes seem to be predicting a short recession. IMHO, the market is still in the secular bull habit of discounting the best case scenario. It is interesting that the older generation, buffet and soros are predicting average to deep recessions. Since the market has not yet discounted an average recession my best guess is that we get the typical 50% decline in the broad market (new lows on SP) this cycle.
Just splitting hairs about a guess. Mainly agree and am grateful for your perspective.
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