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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: AllansAlias who wrote (133822)11/10/2001 2:42:00 PM
From: sun-tzu  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
Hey allan,

thank you much for posting that material, it's extremely helpful. i have a couple questions for you and i'm truly just trying to ascertain if my analysis is flawed in any way.

1) why are so many on the e-wave thread convinced the CRB is about to make a bold move up? the bounce off the 1999 low isn't really unexpected. there's a fairly reasonable trendline connecting points of oct 2000, apr 2001 and aug 2001. in fact, you'll note that in sept. the CRB hugged this line for a few days but it's ultimate failure signaled the CRB's deterioration. so in my mind, a bounce back to that trendline seems reasonable (191ish). but given the technical picture of the CRB, combined with the complete lack of inflationary pressures, it seems like a failure of the double bottom is the most likely scenario at this point.

2) i can't quite understand how sentiment, in the short term at the very least, favors a move to the upside. the bulls are pretty fervent here, and even the steadfast bears have reconciled themselves to further upside action in the short run.

i'm a big VIX follower and basically three ranges have been broken down in a row: 32-40, 32-30 and 30-28. 28 is pretty strong support and given the incredible run we've had in the last few weeks, it's hard for me to fathom another thrust up here.

that being said, the last 2 weeks have certainly caught me off guard.

TIA and again i appreciate you sharing your work.

ST
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