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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 683.47+0.6%Nov 28 4:00 PM EST

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To: bobby beara who wrote (82395)11/10/2001 5:43:40 PM
From: t2  Read Replies (2) of 99985
 
bobby, thanks. Going to take another crash course in understanding options indicators a little more in preparation for next week.

I just sense that business conditions are getting better so a selloff in the market looks unlikely--and we should get more evidence of that as many technology companies make comments--IBM analyst meeting; AMAT, HWP, DELL earnings--and the annual Comdex show. After all, we are just near pre-September 11 levels. That was an external event that caused drops in the Nasdaq. I would note that prior to that date, the P/C had been high for several days and the market was looking like it would turn around from there. That is why I tend to look at the pre-September 11 levels and not just the fact that we rallied so much off of the September lows. On a fundmental basis, technology in particular should be doing better given much lower interest rates and spending stimulas on the way.
That explains why the market refused to drop late last week when so many predicted it...and so many expected it. There is no point selling stocks with PE of even 25, given that the yields on short term rates is just so low---and money market funds just hit another record level this week! The post attack drop that put the markets at lower levels will probably prevent any correction on the market from these levels combined with the U-turn in fundamentals.

Too many factors are setting up this market for a major move higher near term. At least I am confident about it. Looks better than even early April did. I think it continues higher this coming week into options expiration. I view the current period as a start of a new bull market OR least a very big rally.

In addition, the reductions in travel spending is going to find its way into other areas such as buying computers and other electronic gadgets and various other types of items.

That is my optimistic or bullish outlook on the markets.

jmho.
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