Shorting TOL:
stockcharts.com[h,a]dbclyimy[pc25!c50!c200!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!Uk14!Lc3!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lg]
The chart alone should be good for 4-5 dollars off 35, perhaps as much as 8-9 dollars.
I agree it will probably take time for the builders to collapse in a heap. This refinancing of home owners via the destruction of the 30 year and 2$ Fed funds, to me, though, is like restructuring loans to Argentina. Joe Sixpack Consumer is overextended on credit cards, losing his wealth in his 401K and his "play money" account (now, officially a "play dead money" account), so we let him restructure his mortgage loan and free up some extra cash to spend. Will he spend it wisely? Probably spend it all at Xmas for DVD players and flat screen TVs.
Eventually the reckoning comes for him, high and middle end houses get tossed into the sales bin for whatever they can get for them, builders go idle.
I'd like to see the market look 6-9 months ahead on these guys and get it right (or at least get it my way), and give me $10-12 per stock.
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