Jacob, That article was interesting. I agree with it, the Japan analogy does not worry me much.
I have great respect for the Japanese people, and I have visited there. I also have a friend over there now, and in the past I have worked on occasion with Japanese engineers. They are quite different than Americans. I agree that, as stated in the article, we are more adaptable. Their society is one where the nail that sticks up gets hammered down, so to speak. Creativity is not really encouraged much IMHO. However, there is an upside to their approach to things. It is really nice to see how well they all seem to get along, but, again, I think we have the advantage here, from an economic point of view at least.
I still believe in technology for the future. If tech stocks are going to spend years either flat or in a continued downturn, then I will own a lot of shares by then, because I plan to keep buying. The issue for me is what to buy in the tech area, what to avoid, when to buy, and whether or not I can supplement the long term returns by trading. I think the answer is yes to the last question, and I have been successful overall with my trading so far this year, although probably not to the extent of the average poster here on this AMAT thread. Buy and hold has been where I lost money this year.
One last comment. I am truly amazed by the volatility of many of these tech stocks. In theory at least, this volatility should mean opportunity. The "efficient market theory", at best, is only true on a long term basis, IMHO.
John |
