Hi Tradermike, Predictions for 2002 -
2002 can be the worst year since the one that few have studied, some have been told about, lots have read about, many have never dreamed about ever experiencing, and most dread.
2002 can also be a simply brilliant year of Recoveries that plenty need, and most pray for.
2002 is unlikely to be just another year. Between the Red Clan and the Green Tribe …
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only one group can be very right, and the other totally, and possibly fatally wrong …
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… else we would be thinking the same thoughts again for 2003.
For now, I believe we have only just got done with the prologue trailer of this movie script …
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<<Regardless of the prophecies and sagely council, the simple observable facts are exactly that … observable.
The barbarians are laying siege to all the previously unassailable fortresses and forbidden sacred grounds. First fell the Microsofts, sabotaged by the locals; then fell the Amazons, followed by the Lucents, Banks, Intels and now the Ciscos. The drinking water is poisoned by debt. The air is thick with the screams from the rampage and melee. The gates of GE are burning. Finally will fall the Coca-colas, Mercks, Real estate and with it the mighty Dollar. The barbarians’ mopping up operations may exact a similarly heavy toll again by percentage (NAZ to 1400) on the already weakened, depleted and ransacked fortresses. Then, and only then, it will be time to buy, buy blindly, without fear and regret.
A miserly, miserable and all expected 1% interest rate drop by Al Greenspan will not be able to stop the bleeding, but only give a final wink of hope before the candles gets snuffed out by the simple lack of oxygen and the will to “buy and hold”. What may delay the reckoning will be a massive and unforgivable release of real liquidity that will replace the vaporized trillions of false value.
This is how bear markets work. Welcome to the brave new world of 2001 where there are no forbidden grounds on which the barbarians dare not tread.>>
… except I will change 1400 to 1000, 1% to 2%, 2001 to 2002, partly because of the still pervasive and all corrupting commercial cronyism, certain and expected state intervention in markets, zero sum productivity effects, questionable corporate accounting, emptied national treasuries, raided personal nests, voided economic statistics, famine, war, pestilence, and the still absence of a glimmering but doubtful abracadabra worthy of human imagination and hope, but more because of the strong state of denial of what had taken place, its causes, and the absolute absence of calling to accounts of those responsible.
The script and underlying premise, playing on Abby Jo’s words, remain intact …
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<<The Dollar will be the last to fall, but fall it will.
Out of the ashes of tax cuts and interest rate decrease, market intervention and economic data manipulation, a new age will dawn, powered forward by ... oh, I do not know ...
... after due consideration, in the fullness of time, I figure we can dream about mining exploration on Neptune (as long as it is not for platinum and yet more gold), human cloning (as long as they are me and my buddies), and generation skipping offshore trusts backed by, but of course, platinum and gold, naturally.>>
Why platinum and gold? Because they can skip generations easily, and has done so always, and because I lack the imagination and the resolve, not willing to move without the close-air support of value, and the forward intelligence of reliable data.
And so, this is still all that I can discern through my bio-terror-proof goggles, clouded by crimson spray …
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Cannot post as frequently these days, due to political sensitivities, religious sensibilities, and need to stay toiling at the mine face and then in the rice fields, stocking up the galley, and readying the ship for the coming financial storm, hopefully sheltered in a quiet cove, but possibly struggling in the storm center.
Chugs, Jay
P.S. any chance to start a moderated thread for the more anxiety inducing 2002, since censorship is so much in vogue. |
