[Deployment debate]
>When you speak of "total deployments of over 100K," are you saying by any one vendor or over-all?<
Overall by May '98. I hasten to add I mean U.S. #'s.
>I've heard 1998 and 1999 and, as you say, you have to know what someone means by "significant deployments." I maintain what's significant for a large company like Siemens or Lucent or Motorola is far different from Amati. When they order 100K units, it's definitely insignificant. When Amati gets that order, it's big.<
100K units is a lot for AMTX. The debate goes back to when those units get deployed.
>>I agree with you. I just happen to think the earliest stages of build out won't really take place before April '98. Now when do you foresee 30 to 40K monthly growth happening? How long is long term?<<
>I'm predicting January and if it doesn't happen, I'll gladly eat my words. :)<
You just made my eyes pop out! By this January!!! 30K to 40K per month!!!! Methinks you will need an empty stomach for this ;)
>Then we have a divergence between my contacts saying orders are being received and yours saying nothing's being deployed. Could there be a lag in information between those with whom you talk and those who are actually doing the ordering? Could the companies with whom you're involved be among those not planning to deploy? I'm not trying to question your word, I'm only trying to suggest we have different data and are drawing unfair conclusions based on what we know. If you're
convinced your sources give you a correct read on ADSL deployments
world-wide, then I can't argue your conclusions. I can only question them in light of orders coming in.<
U.S. wide - not world-wide, though I am still skeptical of timeframes outside of the U.S. Pat, you state orders are being received. Orders imply contracts. What contractual deployments is AMTX involved in, unless you mean equipment from other companies possibly using the future CopperGold? Maybe this Siemens order?
I have no doubt that ADSL will eventually explode across the telecom world. Getting in with the early buildout stage is critical. We have to agree to disagree on just when this early buildout stage takes place, maybe even what it consists of. My options cover me for an intermediate timeframe to October, just in case we get great news or momentum rolls back to xDSL stocks. I have to say I really don't see any major buildouts happening until 2nd half '98. Yes, I do consider 30K-40K a month as major. Hey, I would consider 1K a month of AMTX modems as major here.
Mike |
