Posted from another board, I think this guy sums it up pretty well...
Bulls growing smug and complacent? Thurs a top?
Odds say YES to this observer.
Remember, the HAYWIRE theory controls in a bear mkt. We've gone 6 weeks w/o anything going haywire.
Interestingly, I recall reading that, on a mass psychology (crowd) basis, people can't remain severely depressed for more than 6 weeks without finding some reason to be optimistic. Could the reverse/inverse also be true? A 6 week psychological cycle?
However, a pullback and consolidation are being bruited about in the major financial press. That's not a good sign FUR the bears.
Still, I suspect we PAWS here, and maybe resume a decline back to the prior lows, albeit in a ragged, recalcitrant fashion.
Da Boyz expended a lot of ammo getting it here. They're going to fight like mad to keep it up or drive it higher, still.
But the HAYWIRE factor should kick in and sooner, rather than later, if it's a true bear, is my opinion.
The longer it takes to reappear, the more dangerous it is for the bulls in terms of holding the prior lows. Having said that this rally is only 50% of the kind of searing rally a bear mkt is capable of, IMHO, and which we have yet to see. One that gets just about everybody bullish beFUR pulling the rug.
V bottom, SCHMEE bottom!
208.245.238.192 |
