Slacker,
As I look forward to the promise of higher wireless speeds in both the mobile and fixed venues, I can't help but envisage differentiated (tiered) offerings by the wireless operators due to the potential for clog. Tiering could "eventually" be keyed to overall minutes of usage, sustainable bit rates (committed bit rates and burst rates), and types of traffic supported.
We already see this in an explicit way in the shared media cable tv, and in a more subtle, implicit, way in dsl.
In cablemodem services, for example, there are data rate caps, beyond which users have no say, hence my use of the term "explicit." We're also seeing cable operators who are gradually coming around to filtering packets at the application level to block vpn traffic to users who are subscribed at the "consumer" level.
This last measure hasn't spread ubiquitously yet, but more and more operators are retooling to take this tack, with Cox and Comcast, I believe, taking the lead.
[[In a similar vein, the cablemodem operators are very conveniently finding enforcement of copyright issues a way of justifying their blockage of various forms of streaming video and music, which further alleviates the strain on their black coaxial segments and cmts (head end) wares. This is something that I would also be looking to the wireless operators to leverage, partly for the same reasons. Note that the dsl operators were not so quick to jump on the copyright bandwagon, with several ILECs stating that they would not serve as intermediator over their customer traffic flows. For one thing, they are not vested in content like the larger MSOs are. And secondly, they are very likely aware of the momentary competitive edge of *not* stating that they would enforce those restrictions. Hmm..]]
In dsl, the limitations are more subtle, defaulting to aggregate traffic and how much upstream capacity providers are willing to support in order to deliver on the rated service they are selling. Clearly, the Bells don't even offer many business class services over dsl to residential neighborhoods yet, but they will. The grade of dsl that is offered, however, is rather limited in terms of vpn-ability and how many IP addresses can be supported over their ATM-based virtual circuits, the way things now stand. And despite the "dedicatedness" that most dsl offerings boast, they, too, are limited in speed, keyed to the upstream provisions that any give dsl operator is willing to support.
This is why I say that the imposed limitations in dsl are implied (for those willing to analyze the matter), if not variable and almost entirely dependent on the providers other network provisions in their edge transport networks (between the c.o. dslam and the Internet gateway), and farther upstream.
I see no way for wireless operators to deliver on the promise of next gen speeds (3G) unless they manage the gate. I see this leading to them charging by class of delivery: Surfing at best effort, VPNing with guarantees, Gaming at another level, and so on.
Of course, the wireless operators' marketing departments wouldn't be foolish enough to preannounce such a tiered pricing plan. This would occur only after the squirrel is caught in the cage, holding his nuts ;)
Any thoughts on this? Anyone?
FAC |
