No disrespect taken Jeffrey, but I think if you are using bull market gauges (98', 99') to mark a trading low on sentiment, you are playing a risky game...
Its a bear market, different rules apply...admittedly, I don't have evidence for this, but I would not expect the VIX to HAVE to get as low as this summer, since the world is a different place now, and even the most hardened bulls would recognize that the structural problems to the economy are greater than anyone thought, and this recovery will not be any sort of V-thing.
Finally, I rarely ever shoot my whole wad, and I won't do it at 25 VIX- so I'll have room to enter lower too...a lot of other things will have to be in place, but I won't be surprised to start deploying there, if not sooner, if other sentiment indicators show topping... |
