What has changed from Sep 9th? Are earnings better, are interest rates much lower (only another half percent after a long string of what looked like ineffective reductions), has the economy sustained a hit that could get at least a good chunk of it (like travel and Ent.) into a tail spin, has employment gone up, is capex picking up (infineon just reduced capex by more than 60%, Quest is goind on s spending strike) and the list is longer. That is not the point, the market , IMTO, is a dynamic animal, it is discounting a coming recovery, when it does that it often puts in a very strong (technically strong) bottom and then retest it (with less technical persuation), we had the first leg (Sep 21, and it probably "would have" been the 16 as the turnips suggested a long time ago, if the market was not closed for four days), the second one is not far. The trigger for a retest will probably be preponderance of preannouncements of one kind or another, or another external event ( bankruptcy of a manjor airline, a bank in troubles because of excessive derivatives gone wrong, or whatever the excuse of the day might be).
Zeev |
