Significant Oversupply of DRAMs to Be Seen in 2002: Nikkei Market Acceess Survey
November 14, 2001 (TOKYO) -- The global demand in 2002 for DRAMs will increase at most by 36 percent over the previous year to 464 x 1015bits or 464 petabits, according to a survey conducted by Nikkei Market Access.
The forecast was based on the assumption that worldwide shipments of personal computers will increase by 5 percent over the previous year to 129.6 million units, and each unit's average memory capacity will increase to 196MB, the survey said.
The forecast was also based on the optimistic assumption that PC usage other than ordinary PC purposes would increase, the survey said.
The DRAM supply based on each maker's plan, such as investment in production lines, production reduction and production volume, is to increase by 52 percent over the previous year to 535 petabits.
In other words, even if demand is considered to be strong, the 2002 sufficiency rate will only be 87 percent, but the projection was made based on the assumption that none of the DRAM makers would drop out.
Micron Technology Inc. of the United States had the largest market share in the world in 2001 in terms of DRAM production converted into bits, followed by Samsung Electronic Co., Ltd. and Hynix Semiconductor Inc. of Korea, with each enjoying roughly an equal 20-percent share.
If the above-mentioned optimistic demand is possible, retreat of one of the three makers will balance supply and demand.
However, if the average memory capacity of each personal computer does not reach 196MB, there will be an oversupply even if one of those top three makers drops out, the survey said.
(Nikkei Market Access) |
