Maybe I was to hard on CRIM Mark Bergman, after all he did get all his projections on sales from Alfred E.Newman.
To: Invstd (2544 )
From: Bill Fischofer Tuesday, Apr 27 1999 8:51AM ET
Reply # of 2563
Latest from Steve Newman
I forwarded my post
(post below this one)https://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=9098327 to Steve Newman
at XYBR to get his comments. I also queried him about the steps to the
$40 million sales that they insist they will do in 1999. The exact
phrase was "I trust that XYBR management does not believe that there
will be no material sales until 4Q99 and then suddenly we'll see $40
million."
Here's his response. It seems to confirm my long standing belief that by
the time the 2Q99 report is out it will be clear that XYBR really is on
track to deliver as promised:
From: Steve Newman
To: "'wtf@adelphia.net'"
Subject: RE: The current situation
Date: Sat, 24 Apr 1999 13:48:54 -0400
MIME-Version: 1.0
X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.1960.3)
Content-Type: text/plain
Status:
Interesting post with which I find much to agree.
There have been sales in Q4 and Q1 which will necessarily, due to our
recently adopted revenue recognition policy, be pushed into future
quarters. They did however actually occur.
Management is very aware of Q2 99 significance and does not expect the
public to wait patiently for Q4 99 results to be announced.
We stand by our 1999 estimates and have good cause to do so.
Thanks for your support.
------------------------------------
To: Crusader (2529 )
From: Bill Fischofer Friday, Apr 23 1999 8:47AM ET
Reply # of 2537
Re: 1Q99
The fallout from the 4Q98 report is that the market is now in "show me"
mode. It is basically saying it doesn't believe that XYBR has sold
anything yet and is waiting to be proven wrong. XYBR can release all of
the PR they want, but the only thing that will get a real reaction at
this point aside from an announcement of real sales would be an
announcement of an equity investment by a major partner.
XYBR would not be in this trading range if the market really believed
that it would achieve $40 million in revenue this year. This skepticism
is entirely due to the revenue 'misunderstanding' in the delayed 4Q98
report and the only 'cure' will be convincing evidence that XYBR really
is tracking to that target. Once such evidence is presented the reaction
will be dramatic, but until that happens we can look forward to
continued narrow trading with a slight downward bias.
Since the 1Q99 results were already known by management at the time the
4Q98 report was released it is reasonable to conclude that the evidence
that the market is looking for will not be found in the 1Q99 report. It
appears that XYBR's overall timetable has experienced at least one full
quarter's worth of slippage since early 1998 when plans for the MA IV
were first announced. But unless one believes that XYBR management is
engaged in outright fraud (which I certainly do not) it seems that the
current quarter (2Q99) is the key quarter which will provide the
confirmation of management's repeated optimism.
-------------------------------
From: Jason Flora Tuesday, Apr 20 1999 9:22AM ET
Reply # of 2528
This was posted on yahoo this morning, issued by MSN:
"Research alerts for Xybernaut Corporation
On 04/19/99: It was reported that institutional holdings of XYBR have
increased by 5% or more. This data is generally updated in Investor
monthly. Such an increase is generally considered bullish for a stock
because it tends to mean greater price stability and stature"
Not meaningful in itself as a 5% change from current levels would be
tiny - but it never hurts. It will be interesting to see who and how
much when the data becomes available.
----------------------------------
by: Bill_Fischofer (44/M/Boca Raton, FL) 63519 of 63610First, questions
of 'belief' have limited utility in investing. Everyone invests for one
reason only: to make money. The key is to match expectations with
results in terms of both timeframes and returns. Those expecting
immediate riches are in the wrong stock. For those "watching the
calendar, not the clock" things are still very much on course.
While I never expected much from the 4Q98 report I would be less than
honest if I did not say that like everyone I was disappointed with it
and the way it was handled. As I stated earlier, it is obvious that this
was an embarrassing incident for XYBR management and they clearly
recognize that their credibility has suffered as a result of it. Given
that backdrop, the reassertion of the $40 million in projected revenue
for 1999 actually gains in importance. After the fumbling over the $1
million they and their lawyers certainly appreciate that they would be
putting themselves in legal jeopardy should a similar 'misunderstanding'
arise over the the interpretation of the $40 million. I therefore take
this to mean that $40 million indeed represents a conservatively doable
target. Certainly if this target does come to pass then shareholders a
year from now will be happy.
But XYBR has yet to demonstrate actuals which confirm that it is
tracking to that target. The 1Q99 report therefore assumes greater
importance than it would had the handling of the 4Q98 report come off
more smoothly. And the 2Q99 report will remain the critical report. In
my experience, if a technology product cannot establish itself within
six months of being on the market it will likely never establish itself.
This is because of the nature of technological progress. Products have
limited windows of opportunity before next-generation products overtake
them, and by the end of the year the MA IV will be an 'old' product.
It's purpose, therefore, must be to validate the reality of the wearable
market as well as to generate sufficient cash and momentum to support
the launch of its successor product. And it must do that in 1999. XYBR's
potential therefore remains intact, as does its speculative nature.
-----------------------------
By: Bill_Fischofer
Reply To #2603 by chuckj Thursday, 15 Apr 1999 at 10:10 PM EDT
Post # of 2637
1Q99 report and 1999 outlook
I've no doubt that the company is going to be very conservative in any
forward-looking statements from here out. Obviously they're embarrassed
by this episode and won't want a repeat in any future quarter. This
actually makes the $40 million reiteration all that more credible as a
conservative lower bound for what 1999 revenues will actually come in
at. Wall Street has a famously short memory and I can assure you that if
the company really is on track to deliver that kind of 1999 performance
that nobody is going to care about this retraction for more than a few
days.
The company has stated that the 1Q99 report will be out by the second
week in May, implying that we'll likely have to wait another month to
see it. It would help in restoring credibility if they surprised with an
earlier date, but I wouldn't count on it.
Returning to the audit qualification, in January I exchanged e-mail with
Maarten Heybroek on this subject and it was apparent that they are
acutely aware of the need to get to an unqualified audit opinion however
that this was unlikely for the 1998 report given that the MA IV only
became available late in the year. I expect this to be a non-issue by
the time the 1999 10-K report is presented.
As I stated before, the 1Q99 report is what will give us a real insight
into early MA IV sales, but those looking for blockbuster numbers will
likely be disappointed. The real test will be the 2Q99 report which must
show the kind of revenue acceleration which will make the $40 million
1999 target look doable and set the stage for major sales and growth in
2000. I've stated consistently that the 2Q99 report will be the key to
evaluating the company's real prospects and I see no reason to change
that assessment based on today's news.
--------------------------------------
To: Jason Flora (2491 )
From: Bill Fischofer Thursday, Apr 15 1999 7:36PM ET
Reply # of 2498
The good, the bad, and the ugly
Here are some initial impressions. The bad news is obvious. The good
news is that it seems that Price Waterhouse has forced XYBR management
into conformity with prudent and conservative accounting practice which
will serve the company well going forward. Obviously this was the
dispute which caused the delay in the 4Q98 report. XYBR wanted to book a
lot of unpaid-for shipments to resellers as 4Q revenue and the
accountants said no. While these sort of retractions are never welcome,
it is better to do so earlier rather than later. This avoids having to
deal with the very unpleasant possibility of earnings restatements down
the road.
It is also good to see the company publically eat a bit of crow in
today's earnings PR by explaining what happened.
The ugly part is the damage that has been done to XYBR management's
credibility. The public explanation is the first step in restoring that
credibility. It must now be followed swiftly with concrete
demonstrations of actions and results. I never expected much from the
4Q98 report given the limited availability of the MA IV during that
quarter. The 1Q99 report will give a much clearer picture of initial
sales and the 2Q99 report must confirm accelerating revenue. It is good
to see the company confirm the $40 million 1999 revenue projection. If
they track to this projection then within a few months this incident
will be long forgotten.
With regard to the audit qualification, while it is unfortunate that
this could not be removed for the 1998 report (due to lack of immediate
sales) this is an albatross that XYBR has lived with since its
inception. It is the reason why this remains a speculative stock.
---------------------------------------
By: Bill_Fischofer
Reply To #2483 by Eddyjoe__97 Thursday, 15 Apr 1999 at 11:09 AM EDT
Post # of 2519
Re: Margin
Being heavily on margin with a stock like XYBR is like dancing on the
edge of a cliff. One can debate which particular gust of wind pushes you
over the edge but it really doesn't matter. Perhaps the filing extension
was the trigger this time but if it were not this then it would have
been something else. You're dealing with an unstable situation which is
going to resolve itself in only one of two ways--back away from the
cliff (voluntarily demargin) or get pushed over (involuntarily
demargin). The lesson learned is not to blame the wind but rather to
realize that edges of cliffs are not a good place to dance.
---------------------------------
By: Bill_Fischofer
Reply To #2468 by Eddyjoe__97 Wednesday, 14 Apr 1999 at 10:17 PM EDT
Post # of 2491
Re: Margin calls
Sorry to differ, but margin calls are generated by only one factor:
overleverage. A margined long is almost by definition the proverbial
"weak hand" that the market invariably seeks to shake out, and the more
heavily margined the weaker that hand is. This happened in September and
it happened again this week. I cannot stress enough that with a
speculative stock like XYBR the leverage is "built in" and need not be
amplified through margin. The key to being able to enjoy speculative
profits is to be able to hold the stock as the story unfolds over time
and margin is inconsistent with that goal.
I'm sorry to see folks forced to sell but forced selling is what bottoms
are made of. It's the way the market works in any trading vehicle and as
a whole, not just in XYBR. Remember last September/October? It was the
forced selling of the ludicrously overleveraged "Long Term Capital
Management" hedge fund (and its many imitators) that formed that bottom.
This phenomenon will exist as long as there are markets because human
nature doesn't change and it's the market's way of wringing out excess
greed from the system. But while human nature doesn't change,
individuals can learn and profit from their own experience as well as
the experience of others. The books call it "paying tuition" and it's
practically a rite of passage that even the Nobel Laureates of LTCM had
to endure. Given the amount of "tuition" paid here, I hope the lessons
will be taken to heart both by those who paid and by those who merely
witnessed this latest instance. Those who do will be better investors
for the experience. Those who don't will inevitably have other
opportunities for a "refresher course" in the future.
-----------------------
>From: Robin Bono
>To:
>Subject: XyberFlash - April
>Date: Tue, Apr 13, 1999, 3:56 PM
>
> (Please enlarge to full screen to view properly)
>
> XyberFlash
> April 1999
>
> What is XyberFlash?
> XyberFlash is a quick, monthly update of the highlights happening at
> Xybernaut. It is intended to keep you informed in between press
> releases, news articles and our upcoming newsletter. Contents may vary
> from upcoming or recent events, interesting industry facts or sound
> bites of news. Please visit us at www.xybernaut.com or write to us at
> 12701 Fair Lakes Circle, Fairfax, VA 22033 with your comments.
>
> Recent Shows and Events:
>
> * CeBIT'99, the largest computer show in the world, held March
> 18-24, 1999:
>
> With mobile software applications, such as warehousing,
> inspection, scanning and surveying, the Xybernaut MA IVTM was displayed
> at four software booths at CeBIT, drawing large crowds. The world's
> largest software applications company, SAP, demonstrated the Xybernaut
> MA IV with applications for inspection and warehousing of incoming
> goods. Symbol Technologies displayed the MA IV with their applications
> for mobile scanning of equipment; and RMR showed mobile land surveyor
> software which takes advantage of the MA IV's hands-free capability. At
> the SBS booth, the MA IV's voice activation was demoed using ViaVoice
> driven "voice only"
> applications, with the MA IV displaying full audio feedback.
>
> The European press was equally impressed with the MA IV. Three
> different German TV networks
> (MDR, NDR, and ZDF) filmed segments for the nightly news, and numerous
> international magazines,
> conducted interviews, including the popular German magazine, Chip.
>
> Upcoming Shows and Events:
> (information also available online at
> xybernaut.com )
>
> Show Name Date Location Detail
> IPIC 2000 3/29-4/2 Denver, CO
> High-tech show. Xybernaut partnered
> with DynCorp.
> TechTrends 2000 4/5-7 Philadelphia, PA Xybernaut in
> Sage Technologies booth
> ndia.org
> Event brought together IT industry
> leaders and high-level gov't officials.
>
> Sponsored by NDIA.
> U.S. Hydrogen Mtg. 4/7-9 Tysons Corner, VA 10th
> Annual U.S. Hydrogen Meeting.
> ttcorp.com
> Xybernaut and DCH, Xyb's newest
> partner, shared a booth at this event.
> Hannover Fair, MESSE '99 4/19-24 Hannover, Germany
> Featuring innovative technology and the
> Hall #16, Booth #C68 art of
> applications. Numerous special
> messe.de
> presentations will show the way ahead and
> open new avenues in technology.
>
>
>
> Show Name Date Location Detail
> Xybernaut's User's Group 5/24-25 Fairfax, VA Targeted
> specifically to current
> Conference users.
> Topics include Wearables in
> The sales@xybernaut.com space
> program, Wireless Comm.,
> Infrastructure & Inspection, GPS/
> GIS and
> Field Data Collection, Speech
>
> Recognition: A Key Enabling Tech.
> ICWC '99 6/9-11 Stuttgart, Germany 1999
> International Conference on
> i.vogt@xybernaut.de Wearable
> Computing. Topics include
> Evolving
> Wearable Markets, Info.
>
> Collaboration w/Wearables, Pervasive
>
> Solutions for Wearables, and more.
> 18th Annual Fairfax Fair 6/11-13 Fairfax, VA
> Community Fair featuring in part
> ffxfair.org technology
> organizations based in the
> local
> area.
>
> Investor Relations Corner:
> * Beginning in February of this year, the Berlin Stock Exchange
> began listing Xybernaut due to the numerous inquiries about the company.
> * Since January of 1999, EQUITIES began listing Xybernaut as a
> recommended "Buy."
>
> Public Relations:
> Please visit the below web address to read the latest press releases
> from Xybernaut.
> xybernaut.com
>
> Please visit the below web address to read the latest articles on
> Xybernaut.
> kanakaris.com
>
> Odds and Ends:
> Xybernaut makes Prime Time! Those of you who are true high-tech
> fanatics may have caught Xybernaut's prime time debut in late March on
> the new hit cable series "The Net." The season's shows were filmed back
> in November of 1998, but the producers could not tell us exactly when
> the two episodes that included the MA IV would run. Should we find out
> when the reruns are planned to air, we will include it in the next
> XyberFlash. We are trying to get permission to run a clip of the
> episode that includes our "debut" on our website. We will keep you
> posted.
>
> This press release contains forward-looking statements within the
> meaning of The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (the
> "Act"). In particular, when used in the preceding discussion, the words
> "plan," "confident that," "believe," "expect," or "intend to," and
> similar conditional expressions are intended to identify forward-looking
> statements within the meaning of the Act and are subject to the safe
> harbor created by the Act. Such statements are subject to certain risks
> and uncertainties and actual results could differ materially from those
> expressed in any of the forward-looking statements. Such risks and
> uncertainties include, but are not limited to, market conditions, the
> availability of components for, and delays in the start of, production
> of the next generations of the Mobile Assistant, general acceptance of
> the Company's products and technologies, competitive factors, the
> ability to successfully complete additional financings and other risks
> described in the Company's SEC reports and filings.
> |
