frank,
somewhat ot, but, anyway...
snipped from a goldman sachs nov14 morning report.
Banks: CreditTrends Continue to Weaken -
Another Indicator...The Oct Fed Survey
The Fed' s October 2001 Senior Loan Officer Survey highlighted further credit weakness
with significant declines in credit demand and further tightening of lending standards for
both commercial and consumer loans. An uncertain economic outlook and weakening
corporate earnings and balance sheet trends led banks to increase spreads, raise premiums
for riskier loans, and strengthen loan covenants and collateral requirements and also
downgrade internal credit ratings on a number of loans. This is somewhat akin to trends in
the corporate bond market.
i've been following, as best i can, the financial discussion here and i'm wondering, is there any consensus among the thread cognoscenti (you know who you are) about a "most likely" market correction scenario? i'm partial to the dec warning season in the tek sector as one catalyst. there has been some talk of q4 -the money q- being atypically weak. i'm not sure if this has already been discounted, but, judging by past performance it seems the market discounting mechanism is overrated. anyway, excluding war/terror factors(don't know how to quantify them), my feeling is that the territory the market says it's seeing over the valley is a mirage.
bwtfdik.
regards y'all,
larry |
