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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: EnricoPalazzo who wrote (48890)11/14/2001 12:56:53 PM
From: Judith Williams  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
ardethan--

not that it should matter but there wasn't consensus [about QCOM]

I don't think there was consensus on JDSU either. When I did a Network report on JDSU, it seemed to me that optics in general were so early in the TALC that their manufacturing processes were still in the cottage industry stage. JDSU seemed to have been crowned a king simply on the basis of market share in a neonatal market sector.

The shakeout Siebel predicts in his bailiwick will pale beside the one we will see in the optics arena. JDSU is sitting on a ton of cash as well as tax-loss carryforwards from the huge writeoffs.

The key for me to whether this arena yields a gorilla game or a royalty game will be whether with the coming consolidation certain firms move to incorporate "smart" software into their chips so that we get closer to all-optical networks. And, of course, who comes up with cost-effective manufacturing processes. The situation is a little like the one Intel faced in the 70s.

Progress, of course, is predicated as well on a pickup in demand and a solution that can solve the last-mile problem. A lot of people think this will be akin to waiting for a Godot who might turn out to be a no-show.

But given the importance of communications systems, patience here might be happily rewarded. And, I'm still convinced, we should not rush to any judgment on the kind of game that will be played out in the space. It's very early days after an extremely tiresome time.

Judith
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