sorry, but this is just post-hoc cherry-picking...those companies, which were winners in the Sierra Madre Economy, were great investments early on precisely because it was like signing up for a lifetime share of Robin Williams' earnings while he was still schleppin' comedy clubs for 35 bucks a pop back in the early 70s. the difference nowadays is that everybody (including those who haven't really arrived) is priced so much higher.
Sorry, if you know any other Silverbacks or dominant Kings or category winners - feel free to insert. Dell? Applied Materials? IBM? EMC? America Online? eBay? Nokia?
Anybody who saw Robin Williams in his student days and early performing days would have recognized the potential for a long revenue stream. Ditto for Placido Domingo. Jim Carrey. Whitney Houston. Leonard Bernstein. Michael Jordan. Randy Moss. Tiger Woods. Venus and Serena Williams. No, all the youthful talent doesn't make it, but that's why we diversify. Talent agents and stock pickers.
If you've read the book and understand the way a game comes about in the first place as well as strategies to employ to capture the "winner", who's to say there won't be another cherry picked winner a decade or two from now to look back upon and frown with a comment "sorry, but this is just post-hoc cherry-picking"? I venture to guess there will be some pretty successful longer term players in various niches. Perhaps not to the level of the next Microsoft, but perhaps a solid investment that grows with its industry and is a portfolio winner for an extended stretch. It seems enough people doubted the success of Microsoft, Cisco, Intel, Oracle, Dell, Applied Materials, America Online, eBay, Siebel, etc... all along the way to date. Will there be others in the future that will be doubted, yet turn out to surprise?
How is a group of companies that provide a fix for a mission critical need performing? Are any within that group standing out in terms of winning market share? How about the price volume action of the individual players in the group of stocks. Do any stand out? Is the entire group advancing? As this game unfolds and moves forward, is there any evidence to suggest that an investor should be consolidating into the emerging leader? Once it becomes clear that the leader has emerged, what is the risk/reward scenario for continued investment as the category grows and matures?
Will each time that process is played allow a cherry or two to be picked - or is it all balderdash?
BB |
