Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH)

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To: Lee Warzala who wrote (865)	6/26/1997 9:46:00 PM
From: John Metcalf	of 6136

Thanks, Lee, for the helpful comments. WSJ ran an article this Winter about the heroic efforts of Merck's chemists to bring Crixivan to market. They stated that Merck had about 130,000 users at that point and that Crixivan had become a $500mm drug. Of course, you're right about the limitations of the information we have. It might make more sense to project towards a final sales figure than to assume uninterrupted compliance for a year by all the users. A suitable reference point might be the half billion that MRK is thought to be grossing. Recent prescription information shows that Viracept is getting about two-thirds as many new scripts as Merck. If that number were constant for a year, Viracept would have more than 80,000 users. Add in an overall increase in users due to reduced mortality, and another increase due to new guidelines favoring early treatment. Finally, add some revenue due to the higher price of Viracept vs. Crixivan. Yes, 140,000 users in a year is wildly optimistic, and projection beyond a year involves more competitors. Someplace between the Chicken Little story and Cinderella must lie the domain of the reasonable estimate.

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