re: QCOM TXN Traditional DSP chips v. The ASIC DSP
<< Qualcomm's competition in the ASIC market.... >>
Before I respond to your questions (in a separate post) I'm wondering if you had seen this April DSP Market Bulletin from Forward Concepts that discusses Traditional DSP chips (TXN et al) used on wireless mobile telephony and The ASIC DSP (QCOM et al).
You might have the distinction clear, between a DSP and an ASIC used in mobile wireless, but it is a little fuzzy to me, so on the chance that it might be fuzzy to one or two others here, I thought I'd post an article that somewhat clears up one aspect of my fuzzies.
The article is followed by Forward Concepts latest forecast for programmable DSP's and an abstract from the article below of mobile wireless DSP shipments by vendor last year (2000).
In their expanded 2.5G/3G world it looks like Qualcomm will slug it out primarily with TI, DSPC (and Intel), and Motorola, and a possibly revitalized Agere.
>> The Cellphone Baseband Chip Market
Will Strauss
Forward Concepts
Dsp Market Bulletin
April 4, 2001
forwardconcepts.com
DSP: The Most Embedded Processor
With the Embedded Systems Conference soon upon us, we must again remind the world that digital signal processors (DSPs) are the most embedded of all processors.
And the largest market for DSP chips is the digital wireless market, with cellular phones as the main driver.
We estimate that the cellular terminal or cellphone market reached some 416 million "sell-through" units in 2000. That number doesn't include chip shipments for work in process or for finished goods inventory at the cellphone vendor, so the chip houses can reasonably claim even higher collective shipments. Moreover, some cellphones contain two DSP-based chips: one for the baseband operation and another for the vocoder function, while most employ a single DSP for both functions. So, actual chip unit shipments can well exceed the number of cellphones shipped.
The ASIC DSP Role
The DSPs serving the cellular market come in two varieties: those from traditional DSP chip houses, led by Texas Instruments, and the less obvious ASIC DSPs based on licensed intellectual property (IP) usually in the form of DSP cores.
We have analyzed the market that includes ASIC DSP cores by Qualcomm CDMA Technology or through licensed DSP cores incorporated in baseband chips from merchant market ASIC chip vendors like LSI Logic, Prairiecomm, and Samsung or from significant cellphone vendors themselves, like Siemens and Philips. In addition, we have concluded that cellphones are also the largest market for licensed DSP IP as well.
Our analysis indicates that traditional DSP chips were in 70% of the cellphones shipped in 2000 (292 million units), while licensed DSP cores are in the other 30% (124 million units).
TI clearly leads the traditional DSPs with an estimated 83% of that segment (242 million units), followed by Motorola with about 10% of that segment (28 million units) and the remaining 7% or so mostly from Analog Devices and Agere/Lucent.
If we count the ASIC sockets based on the intellectual property (IP) involved, DSP Group, Inc. is the clear leader, with its Pine, Oak and Teak cores shipping in an estimated 83 million units for 67% of the licensed-core DSP market, followed by Qualcomm with 32% of that segment (an estimated 40 million chipsets, excluding their base station chip shipments). We estimate that another 1 million handsets based on licensed DSP cores (<1%) were shipped by other companies.
On a market-wide basis, TI leads with DSP chips in well over half (58%) of the cellphones that shipped in 2000, while DSP Group is a substantial number-two, with almost a fifth of the worldwide market (20%).
TI can claim sockets at market leader Nokia as well as at Ericsson, Sony, Sendo, Handspring and even (yes) Motorola along with PDC sockets through Intel's acquisition of the former DSP Communications, Inc. DSP Group is known to have its IP in sockets in a comparable number of companies. Although DSPG does not publish details on its licensees, we believe that Siemens is their top licensee followed by Philips; and through ASIC chip vendors like LSI Logic and Samsung, their IP is also in sockets at Bosch, Denon, Mitsubishi, and Panasonic, among others.
The Future
It is in the ASIC DSP space that Intel has its crosshairs on. Intel is working to develop 3G chipsets, perhaps based on the "Frio" DSP engine jointly developed with Analog Devices--coupled with its XScale RISC core of StrongArm heritage. Intel refers to the overall architecture as PCA (Personal Internet Communications Architecture). In this regard, they are challenging TI's already-shipping OMAP platform, which consists of an ARM9 core and TI's C55x DSP core on the same die. Therefore, we have another ASIC DSP vs. traditional DSP battle brewing.
With the very high prices paid for 3G spectrum by the cellular operators, their payback will heavily depend on providing new functionality and new services for which subscribers will pay extra. This could result in future cellphones with a variety of processing engines (both licensed and internally-developed) that are likely to include DSP cores, RISC cores, and a variety of coprocessors and/or accelerators for GPS, Bluetooth connectivity, MP3 playback, etc. <<
Also:
>> Market Forecast Revised Again
Will Strauss
Forward Concepts
Dsp Market Alert
October 17 2001
forwardconcepts.com
In the aftermath of the September 11th terrorist attack on the World Trade Center, it is now evident that the U.S. economy is headed for a recession. In looking over the semiconductor market overall, we have lowered our projections for the monolithic integrated circuit portion of that market from a 25% decline to a 30% drop for 2001.
Unfortunately, DSP growth continues to be in lock step with the overall semiconductor market "train wreck," and Forward Concepts forecasts is lowering its forecast to a 30% drop in DSP shipments in 2001 to the $4.3 billion level. We have also lowered our 2002 DSP shipment forecast to 32% from our earlier 35% projection. Our revised forecast is presented in the table below:
Programmable DSP Chip Shipments - $Millions, Worldwide
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 CAGR
$6,142 $4,299 $5,675 $7,548 $9,888 $12,854 16%
One Big Negative
Wireline communications, including telephony infrastructure equipment, has been the major disappointment this year, and will continue to be a drag on DSP sales through the second quarter of 2002, in our opinion. One exception appears to be for IP (Internet Protocol) PBX systems and IP Phones. Although Cisco and 3Com are the market leaders, these DSP-enabled products are tough to pick out of the overall revenue declines reported by the two companies.
Some Bright Spots
The cellphone market inventory glut has pretty much disappeared and revenue growth in this segment was positive in the third quarter for both Motorola and TI. Guidance from both companies is for continued improvement in Q4, thanks to 2G shipments to China and GPRS shipments to Europe.
However, the first half of 2001 was such a cellphone disappointment that we have lowered our forecast of cellphone shipments for the full year to 390 million units, down from the 416 million that shipped last year. Of last year's cellphone shipments, though, it now appears that only about 380 million actually reached customers, compounded by DSP chip shipments that overshot the 416 million mark by another 20 million or so, leading to the inventory problem that was clearly evident by the fourth quarter of last year.
The only other big market (more than 100 million DSPs) that has shown flat to slightly positive growth this year is for hard disk drives. That's because the disk drive manufacturers had their inventory glut last year. Other DSP markets showing positive growth this year are smaller, like digital still cameras (a 17-million unit market this year, growing some 57% over last year) and MP3-type Internet audio (now going into portable CD players, camcorders, digital still cameras and cellphones as well as traditional flash memory players). <<
and ...
>> 2000 Unit Shipments And Unit Market Share By Vendor
Traditional DSP chips were in 70% of the cellphones shipped in 2000 (292 million units), while licensed DSP cores are in the other 30% (124 million units).
Million Market
Units Share
Traditional DSP Chips
TI 242 83%
Motorola 28 10%
Analog Devices + Agere/Lucent 2 27%
Total 292 100%
Licensed DSP Cores
DSP Group, Inc 83 67%
Qualcomm" 40 32%
Other 1 1%
Total 416 100%
Combined Traditional DSP Chips & Licensed DSP Cores
TI 242 60%
DSP Group, Inc 83 20%
Qualcomm" 40 10%
Motorola 28 7%
Analog Devices + Agere/Lucent 2 2%
Other 1 1%
Total 416 100.0%
* excludes base station chips
- Eric - |
