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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity

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To: kodiak_bull who wrote (10551)	11/15/2001 7:01:50 PM
From: upanddown	Read Replies (1) of 23153

KB I don't know about OSX 50. To me, that would mean $12-13 oil. I see another bottom around 60 with $16-17 oil. I think the Russians are going to cave in here. Oil exports has become a very important contributor to foreign exchange earnings and tax revenues and I think the pressure will be on from Putin on down to stabilize prices. Hell, they don't actually have to cut but just say they will since Russian oil production figures are totally unreliable. The Russians know that an agreement with them would instantly add a couple of bucks to the price. If it prompts a REAL 1.5M cut in OPEC/non-OPEC, I think the market might be in supply deficit, especially with the increased demands of winter coming. Where is this glut of oil? OECD stocks, including the US, are in the middle of normal range. 2002 is still looking for a 1% increase and worldwide demand is staying above 75MMBD. Just a whiff of worldwide economic recovery could change things in a hurry. Another spur to the market might be a nice photo of bin Laden looking kinda DEAD. ITOH, you could be right, pal. Nobody (except slider, of course) saw 47 in early 1998. Luck, John

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