Thursday November 15, 12:44 pm Eastern Time
Press Release
SOURCE: The Stock Trader's Almanac
Based on Historical Precedents Market Could Advance 50%
OLD TAPPAN, N.J., Nov. 15 /PRNewswire/ -- Perhaps the most bullish stock market prediction being made today comes from Yale Hirsch, market historian and editor of The Stock Trader's Almanac. His projection is based on historic cycles. ``A hypothetical portfolio of stocks bought at midterm election-year lows since 1914 has gained 50.2% on average when the market reached its subsequent high in the following pre-election year,'' says Hirsch.
He notes that this persistent four-year market cycle is related to the Presidential election cycle. Stocks climb toward a high as the incumbent administration pulls out the fiscal and rhetorical stops to make the economy look good as the election approaches. Market gains from the last five-midterm lows were: 65.7%, 81.2%, 34.0%, 45.2%, and 52.5%.
``The recent bear market, exacerbated by terror attacks on the U.S., has prepared the ground for a rebound in line with the historical pattern,'' according to Hirsch. If the low in 2002 turns out to be 8000 a 50% advance could take the Dow ( ^DJI ) up 4000 points to 12000 in 2003.
The full record for this four-year cycle is in the 2002 The Stock Trader's Almanac. This is the 35th edition of that Wall Street perennial, and is now considered the standard Market data source. Founder Yale Hirsch watches the market and looks for new patterns from his base in Old Tappan NJ.
Among the interesting discoveries reported in the just-published 2002 Almanac is a ``first-day-of-the-month'' phenomenon. Remarkably, during the last four years the Dow ( ^DJI ) has gained a cumulative 2619 points on the first trading day of the month. Results from all other days show a net loss.
Other new data reported in the 2002 Stock Trader's Almanac include shifts in the ``January effect'' to December, a study of sector seasonality (semiconductor ( ^SOXX ) and retail stocks tend to start uptrends in November), and emerging Nasdaq ( ^IXIC ) patterns. Every year the Almanac provides comprehensive historical market data plus month-by-month guidance based on analysis of that information. The Almanac is available for $34.90 postpaid at (800) 477-3400 or online at stocktradersalmanac.com. |
