NOV 15 INDEX UPDATE
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Short-term technical readings:
DOW - borderline CLASS 1 SELL
SPX - overbought region, pending INTRADAY CLASS 1 SELL, double DOJI
OEX - overbought region, pending INTRADAY CLASS 1 SELL
NAZ - overbought region, pending INTRADAY CLASS 1 SELL, imperfect TRISTAR
NDX - overbought region, pending INTRADAY CLASS 1 SELL, TRISTAR
VIX - CLASS 1 BUY(inverse to market)
NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs = POSITIVE 31
NAZ NET ADVANCERs-DECLINERs = NEGATIVE 194
Although the NAZ HI-LOs closed positive, it declined from yesterday. With the NAZ closing flat, down 2, the advancers-decliners were at NEGATIVE 194. These market internal readings, do not support a strong rally from here. Unless the market internals improve soon, I suspect that some sort of selling should start, and could start as soon as tomorrow/MONDAY.
The NDX did give a TRISTAR pattern which is a moderately reliable sell signal. What would be a significant negative for the NDX/NAZ would be a significant down gap at FRI's open, with no intraday recovery, since that would give an ISLAND REVERSAL signal. I'm not predicting.
In both our website mutual fund account and my personal mutual fund account I added another USPIX position at today's close.
As to how far I think the market could drop - HECK if I KNOW!!!
Subjectively, the market recently has given the impression that it doesnt want to go down. So one could assume that for now the market is putting to the side the bad news. Having said that, how much good news is already priced into the market? So, but I have not statistically viable method to measure that, although I do have a MAGIC DUMPLING that tells all. gggggggg So my next question is, where would be the surprise - would it be to the upside or to the downside. Seems that bullish enthusiasm is creeping back in. |
