Sounds like you are waffling a bit on that bearish talk:-) the price objectives are more critical than
the time objectives, especially since I'm seeing some conflicting time cycle info and the seasonality is a bit
bullish, next week.
on tuesday afternoon it was looking like we could be up at these 200 dma levels on the SPX, DJIA, NASD, OEX,
RUT etc. by the close of business yesterday. But the market slowed down.
stockcharts.com
but you can see we've still got some room for more advances prior to hitting them
stockcharts.com[m,a]daclyymy[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]
look at this DJIA chart,
stockcharts.com[m,a]daclyymy[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]
see all those prior support levels at 10200, back in July, not much resistance on the above chart until we hit
that old support, which has now turned into overhead resistance. And wouldn't you know it's also the 200 dma.
as well -g-. I also have a couple of Fibonacci magnets in the viscinity.
Also on the 3 above charts, check out the RSI, there is not a single momentum divergence on the RSI yet on
any of the charts. So statistically we normally around 80% to 85% of seeing higher highs in price with
some momentum divergences occuring. Obviously it would be good to get a couple of good down days, to
then enable a pull back in the RSI and then have the price make a new higher high, while the RSI makes a
lower diverging high.
And it's not written in stone that we have to go all the way up to these 200 dma's before seeing a bigger sell off.
Especially if we have an exogenous shock, like 9-11 or Argentina defaulting.
I am short term bear, but I think that the general trend going forward could be up.
what type of price and time objectives do you have on your short term bearishness?
John |
