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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity
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To: jim_p who wrote (10564)11/16/2001 11:47:23 AM
From: kodiak_bull  Read Replies (2) of 23153
 
I'm going to think out loud here for a moment. The OSX is made up of 15 stocks, with the following percentages:

SYM OPEN LAST %

SLB 44.15 43.18 11.55%
SII 44.05 41.64 11.13%
CAM 35.00 32.80 8.77%
BHI 32.50 30.65 8.20%
WFT 30.75 30.23 8.08%
TDW 29.50 27.10 7.25%
NBR 27.50 27.01 7.22%
RIG 27.00 25.77 6.89%
NE 26.40 25.53 6.83%
BJS 22.80 22.61 6.05%
HAL 21.25 20.05 5.36%
RDC 16.00 14.87 3.98%
GLM 14.75 13.56 3.63%
VRC 14.30 12.92 3.45%
GLBL 6.72 6.05 1.62%

Totals 392.67 373.97 100.00%

Oil Sector Index Divisor - 5.3752747
Oil Sector Index Value - 69.5723

Now, if I just plug in some back of the envelope values for these stocks, what may be reasonable bottoms during a sharp selloff, let's see where the index goes:

SYM price

SLB 39
SII 38
CAM 27
BHI 23
WFT 24
TDW 19
NBR 17
RIG 18
NE 19
BJS 18
HAL 15
RDC 12
GLM 11
VRC 9
GLBL 4.5


293.50

Oil Sector Index Divisor - 5.3752747
Oil Sector Index Value - 54.6

Okay, maybe 45 is going to be hard to reach without some further BIG CATALYST, and I'm sure many folks will have issues with individual back of the envelope prices ("RDC will NEVER trade at 12!!" [but it already traded this year below 12]), but this gives me at least an idea of which prices takes OSX down to the 54-55 level.

phlx.com

Luck to all,

Kb
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