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Technology Stocks : Jabil Circuit (JBL)
JBL 215.07-1.4%Nov 6 3:59 PM EST
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To: patroller who wrote (5886)11/16/2001 12:29:35 PM
From: OldAIMGuy  Read Replies (1) of 6317
 
Thanks SAM and Patroller, Great article and commentary. This is still one of the more confusing economic slowdowns that I've ever witnessed.

Back in my Capital Equipment Sales days I realized that we were at the very tail end of the economic cycle. When Demand generated inquiries for us, we had to respond with a full blown bid which then went through a review process and many re-bids as the project was refined. Finally an order was let, fabrication of components began and eventually we'd install the equipment. Then there was start-up and debug. By the time all this was completed many times the economy had slouched and the equipment would then just "rest" or as Patroller said get mothballed until needed.

I don't shy away from capital equipment companies as possible investments, but one has to understand where they are in the business cycle to be profitable as investments. Seeing how the semi industry, component builders and OEMs got whipsawed is very interesting.

Recently one of my good friends at my former employer (the capital equipment company, iron and aluminum melting and pouring equipment) said they're slowing down now. If history is going to repeat itself, this means that the leading edge of the economy is probably starting to recover.

Best regards, Tom
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