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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: techreports who wrote (48986)11/16/2001 12:40:00 PM
From: Seeker of Truth  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
While biotech is not part of the gorilla game, some aspects of it might be instructive. First most of it, including genomic stuff, is done by small companies, which have angels (formerly) or the public(in recent years) to back them. Why don't the big drug companies do lots and lots of it? Instead they make deals with the few little companies who achieve the beginnings of some hopeful success. The reason is that the odds are too long. The expected return is too small ON THE AVERAGE. The small investor thinks that this particular company could be the Big Thing. It's his money which is needed to finance the rapid growth of biotech. The point is that there are too many aspects, too many directions of the research. Every MD/PhD has an original idea which might possibly lead to a blockbuster drug, some day. The small company simply doesn't have the resources to actually produce, test and market the product in any quantity. So the big drug companies get much of the profits. I see it as a kind of foolish game for the small investor, which paradoxically helps humanity. Instead of spending more public money supporting university research in this area, we are forced by diabolical enemies to spend on our own immediate protection.
Anyway, throwing the money away at Las Vegas gives the same result as buying some gene stock without the latter's contribution to human welfare.
Medical research needs a mosaic of technologies. Any single company like HGSI,MLNM only contributes a tiny aspect to one problem. There's no gorilla for the whole problem, e.g. of a drug to cure disease X.
BTW, Microsoft was never so expensive as MLNM etc.
Gambling in physics often pays off.
Gambling in chemistry occasionally pays off.
Gambling in biology leads almost certainly to a loss. Of course one does get some more information.
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