To all:
Is there an equity which tracks the OSX, like QQQ tracks the Nasdaq 100?
Last time I was in this sector, was late 1998. I bought RIG and SLB then, as I posted on this thread. Got out way too soon, but made a nice ST profit. Now that it looks like we're going back to 10-15$ oil, it's time to think about the sector again.
This time:
1. I'm thinking that the safest bet, rather than trying to pick stocks, is just make a bet on the sector and ReversionToTheMean.
2. Don't even think about selling till oil gets back above 30$. This probably means waiting till the recession is over, or waiting till the Chechens blow up Russian pipelines, and/or Bin Laden leads a revolution in Saudi Arabia.
3. the recent late-September panic selling set a low for most stocks, a low that will hold till the Fed starts increasing rates and cutting back the liquidity gusher (mid-2002?). But, IMO, the SOX stocks probably won't follow that trend. While business conditions and overcapactity elsewhere get steadily cleared out, it's only going to get worse for this sector. So, I doubt we've seen the cyclical lows yet in this sector. |
