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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: BigBull who wrote (94457)11/16/2001 7:02:56 PM
From: Gary Burton  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
Big---Follow me here for a moment--re long term chart of crude

I recall seeing a chart back in 98 that went back several decades. I've forgotten the url. At any rate from memory--WTI originally went from $5ish up to $45ish over quite a number of years-from there it collapsed to $9.50 then shot back to $40 in a spike in 1990, collapsed again to pennies above $10 in 1998 (8yrslater)then surged to $38 in 2yrs and now we're back to the teens in 1 more yr

The spike from 9.5 to 40 was quick--as was the rise from 10 to 38 (in contrast it took 8yrs to drop from 40 to 10)

Back in 98 I was expecting (hoping) that it would take out 9.50 to resolve the count BUT it didn't--instead it rose fairly quickly from10+ to 38.

So, it is quite feasible for one to argue that the First Drop from 45 to 9.50 over many years was simply interrupted by an ABC Flat looking correction back up to 38 (where the A and the C were spikes time wise)and only from 38 will the eventual take out of 9.50 finally start down...in which we are currently in the midst of.

In that sense, time wise, we could base out in here at 16ish and then rise towards say 25 and then drop again to say 8-9 a few years later....fwiw
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