Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: kodiak_bull who wrote (94427)	11/16/2001 7:05:21 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) of 95453

Kodiak re: The move from Black Golds top to Yellow Golds bottom: Wrong. The "call" was not made in August. I was virtually fully invested in Oils - and exited Oils the last week of Aug (taking 75% of all my funds out of the market in fact) - first week of Sept of 2000 - the posts are here. From late Sept to Nov 2000 - I made the call to "Exit from Black Golds (Oil) top - of which the first of Sept was the 1st OSX top @ OSX 140 ... to the bottom in Yellow Gold - which was reached during what literally was the cheapest 90 day window for buying gold stocks in 15 years... If making a portfolio weighted call - to buy & build positions during literally the cheapest 90 day window for an index in 15 years wasn't a good call.... what more needs be said ? Surely I wasn't expected to pick the day, hour & minute of "the" bottom ? ... I'll sleep well for having built a portfolio weighted positon into a literal non-stop 95% run up in the HUI (unhedged gold stocks - which is all we bought) - just as the OSX topped out. Kodiak; just for the sake of arguement - here are two reality check charts. One from your timeframe of August 2000, the other year to date... I won't pain you with the one from Oct/Nov at the "bottom" of the HUI/XAU (VBG). ...You can sping & misrepresent the call out of Oil and into Gold all you want to... but these two charts show that macro call can't be discounted - period. The call was made and it paid off in spades & obviously so. Oils have tanked and Golds have ramped - reaching an actual peak of being +90% on the unhedged HUI.... READ 'EM and WEEP ~ :http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/comp_chart.gsp?cs=HUI.X&csi=COMPX&cs=XAU.X&csi=INDU&cs=OSX.X&csi=SPX&cs=XNG.X&cs=XOI.X&cs=&cs=&n=70&p=week From Aug 2000 to date: HUI (unhedged gold stocks) + 25% - remember we don't buy the hedged & copper tainted XAU. XAU + 2% XOI - 1% XNG - 5% DOW - 8% S&P - 23% OSX - 40% Nasdq - 53% Year to date 2001: siliconinvestor.com HUI + 31% XAU + 9% DOW - 8% XOI - 11% S&P - 12% Nasdq - 21% XNG - 30% OSX - 45% .... so who's zoomin' who now Kodiak ? No Pinocchio there... the posts are on record. You guys poo-poo'd some of us shifting from Black to Yellow Gold all thru Sept to November last year and now you want to re-write history, or discount the call ? ...look at those charts and poo-poo the macro call to shift out of oil and into gold and try to do it with a straight face (roflmao)! You also Poo-Poo'd us for calling an exit and going short the "too perfect Nat Gas Storm" in late Decmeber last year as well. Then you also Poo-Poo'd me for making that final exit call the first week of June this year on the OSX - and the Yahoo Rig thread is an amazing historic study on the use of iNet investor sentiment as an accurate if not uncanny indicator of tops & bottoms. My main point is not the calls... but; that the Chihuahau crowd that pushed the split of this original thread occured precisely because of the agaist the grain calls made on gold,then the one made at the exact peak of the Nat Gas mania and then again made on the first signs of the slowing global economy & the unprecedented supply builds in the API's this late spring - leading to the Yahoo RIG thread Wars - not disimilar to what happened here. I'll stand by my record on those macro calls; some with some excellent timing - ie: the Dec 30 Nat Gas top call, the June 5 final OSX exit call and the recent OSX 58 "intra-day" TURN call... but, the best one is and will continue to be - the call for a Portfolio weighted shift to Gold & Silver stocks... it's a mutli-year secular bull just getting started... merely a re-test of XAU 45-48ish bottom support -not to be unexpected with the Commericials following Greenspan & the ESF's "Student Body Right" insider move on propping up the markets & capping Golds "Canary in the Coal Mine" essence - post the Sept 11/WTC tragedy... nothing's changed... the Bear is alive & well....DOW , S&P and NAZ to tank substantially from these levels (It's the valuations - stupid...not to mention still slowing global economies & the addition of the Rogue Wave Event of Terrorism)... the Oilpatch's only nearterm upside is strictly War/Oil Supply disruption oriented ... with anything sub- OSX 58 down to the alltime index low of 45 being no-brainer LT value entry levels...so other than patiently waiting for the inevitable fall of the OSX & your whipsaw capitulation again (vbg)... what is there really to talk about (VBG) ? My digs on the TA wannabe's (especially daBum) is they wouldn't/couldn't and didn't make the OSX rollover call in June.... and wouldn't/couldn't and didn't make the "TURN" - interim trading bottom call on OSX 58 off of ABN Amro's infamous OSX downgrade & stop run ... Now I respect anyone's perogative not to "play" (ie: your's on the Oils of late 'bum) but TA is supposed to be able to make all calls... you can't have 50% moves in an index and not be able to make a TA call ?!?!? - that's my point - period. Where were all the TA calls in the first week of June - where the OSX literally collapsed and went into a 50% freefall ? Then where was the TA call on the 58 to 86 near 50% pop of late ? And then where was the TA call to exit that pop and to avoid this most recent Chihuahuaian whipsaw (VBG) ? The reason the Chihuahua's have their hackels up here - is simple: ... you guys jumped on a DCB - that was purely a "War/Oil supply disruption" premium assignment event - as a new Oilpatch rally.... you guys stayed too bullish for too long and didn't exit in June.... then got too bearish - for too long here & missed the "TURN" at OSX 58 and then jumped back on - "long" here atop the rally thru OSX 80 and just got whipsawed again... Pretty bloody day on the OSX yesterday now wasn't it ? (pity those who jumped on the bandwagon on margin of late on a 10% down day in the index)...and there isn't anything that will bring out the ankle bites of the Chihuahua crowd quicker than a good ole fashioned - "too late to the party - whipsaw" ... now is there (VBG)?

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