dabum' re: playing with 10% of my portfolio on the OSX TURN
re: your comment of -
["And here's the link showing I didn't fabricate your portfolio"]
Dabum - You did fabricate it via misrepresenting what I did and when I did it.... why you & Kodiak keep doing this mystifies me... it truly does ?
That post is from Oct 2nd... days after the "TURN" occured on Sept. 27th.
"AFTER" taking some initial DCB profits - I was "down to a 10% portfolio weighting in oils....keyword there - "AFTER" taking intial DCB profits...ie: my comments on it being "PIG - not HOG" territory.
I began taking profits immediately at OSX 70 thru 80; off the bounce from 58 - as any good trader would and as I said I viewed OSX 82 as the top of the coming DCB...and yes, I did miss the "exact" top by a couple of points (I suppose you've got something to say about that too (VBG).
In the post below; I said that this was a trading opp and all I wanted to due was to begin to build perhaps a 20% long position from my re-entry long at OSX 58 - down into any further re-test of the prior cycle low of OSX 45.
Then, I also clearly explain that my intention is to flip those trading profits into a "zero cost" basis position in some Oilpatch LEAPS... keeping upside leverage to any future move, but buying time and minimizing/eliminating any cost/exposure.
I explained why the OSX bottomed there that day at OSX 58 - that being because of the simultaneous crescendo of Institutional Tax Loss Selling - with numerous hedge funds piling short atop their backs and then ABN AMRO's duplicitous downgrade of OSX stocks there that day... at OSX 58 we were a mere 13 points from the alltime single daily low ever recorded in the OSX and at that pricepoint - there was absolutely no "risk premium" being assigned for the very real potential of a "WAR/Oil Supply disruption".
I in fact did cover my shorts and rotate long the very day the OSX bottomed at 58 - that's a fact and I don't think you deny that is what I did; do you ? - as it appears your point is now; that I only made a 10% portfolio commitment to the "TURN" - correct ?
Well;I peaked at perhaps a 30% portfolio weighting with over half of that being calls/leaps.
Given my core position in Gold/Silvers and other broad market shorts... a 30% portfolio weighting with nearly half of that being calls/leaps was a pretty nice hit from OSX 58 to 70-82 - where I took profits to end at a final 10% portfolio weighting - again; mainly calls/leaps that have close to a zero cost basis - due to those trading profits.
I'll take that trade anytime... especially when once again (as documented on the RIG Yahoo board) I was alone in making it.
Here's the post you linked & misrepresented (for the record).
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxR
re: simpletonian mindsets....,
by: SliderOnTheBlack 10/03/01 09:08 am
Msg: 26153 of 26728
OSX 58 was "Pig, not Hog" territory to cover my Energy shorts and begin to trade long.
Sometime/anytime... there will be a "War/Oil Supply Disruption" premium assigned to the Price of Oil and Oil stocks.
I'm still 25% short the broad market (see Dow sub 7000 and triple digit NAZ coming) and am long 65% Gold/Silver here...what I want to begin to do - is to try to build a growing position in Energy stocks as the sector bottoms and more nearterm; to counter-trend trade what will be a "when, not if" assignment of that "War/Supply disruption" Premium given to Oil/Oil stocks.
OSX 58 to the historic index low of 45 is 13 points people... we're splitting hairs on average in/entry points; short covering transitions and counter-trend trading opps.
Some individual stocks may have seen their low allready, others will still go lower.
All I want to do "nearterm" in Energy is to have "some" (15-20% portfolio exposure) to energy on a counter-trend trading basis - when, not if....things light up (hopefully figuratively & not literally) in the Mid -East.
If you don't begin to counter-trend trade the "last 13 points" to the alltime OSX low - should Saddam stop Oil shipments & see Crude Spike...
*** you won't want to chase these stocks - given the still underlying global recession; so you have to be willing to be dancing in & out here - maintaining "some" exposure.
But, longerterm... remember these stocks led crude & nat Gas prices and even other global economic indicators on the way down & they will lead as well on the recovery side, on the way up as well...
I think anyone who's "been there & done that" in the last couple of Oilpatch CYCLES (keyword there) - realizes that accumulating OSX 58-45 WILL be profitable and extrememly so; on a when, not if basis as well...
Additionally, for those who are still BEAR's , energy offers some "hedging" characteristics to those loaded in gold/silver and still strongly short the broad market.
FWIW; I'm:
- 25% short the broad market
- 10% long Oilpatch
- 65% long gold/silver stocks (trading between 40-65%)
- Cash from "0" to margined, up to 25% cash
...trading long & short into/out of a bit of margin and with counter-trend trading profits in Oils - will be buying all the "zero cost basis" Oilpatch "LEAPS" that I can load.... I'd love a "quadruple bottom" repeat of late '98-early '99...which gave us some nice volatile trading opps and 4 re-tests of the OSX 45-62ish range to accumulate... that is exactly what today to next spring will bring imo and the March to May 2002 OSX seasonal rally may be taking us from that OSX 45-62 band back to the 80's with some 50%+ pops from present price levels for those accumulating here into the next 13 points downside to the alltime OSX low.
The key was to not have ridden the June Swoon down from OSX 120 to 58 here of late... but, rather to be covering shorts, or "re-entering" long here as we do form a cyclical bottom with "FRESH" cash... sadly; we've seen far too many who didn't get out, but who did ride the OSX train off the cliff (the Supplyside Econ crowd et al) and now have become "Bears" at the bottom...after being PermaBulls at the top ?
- whodathunkit (VBG)?
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
PS: go back & read the point about - quote:
"you won't want to chase these stocks (atop this rally) - given the still underlying global recession; so you have to be willing to be dancing in & out here - maintaining "some" exposure." - unqote.
...and what did you Chihuahua's just do ?
You missed the DCB trading "TURN" at OSX 58 - then got back on the long bandwagon at OSX 80 and got your asses whipsawed again... whodathunkit ?
And 'bum & Kodiak have that ole Green Monster digging so deep down their crawl; that they have to resort to misrepresentation of a good call; made with good work.
Seriously; why is your problem ?
I and others left this thread to you guys - as you couldn't take our contrarian calls atop the Nat Gas Mania in late December, couldn't take the call for a Recession led OSX collapse with the early warning indicators being the unprecedented ramp in API/AGA builds this spring and when I made the June 5th "final exit" call here & on Yahoo's RIG thread - I was literally alone... literally attacked by entire threads here & on Yahoo led by Supply Side Econ... (and where is he now ?)... the OSX literally rolled off the cliff on that call... and collapsed 50%.
Then you guys got Bearish... began shorting; became the 3 Bears... at the bottom and you stayed that way too long.
Then I made "THE TURN" call - again to your complete chastisement.... but, since you can't dispute that I made that call - now you have to misrepresent that it was only a 10% portfolio weighted call ?
... hell; so what if it was ?
It's the sharing & the exchange of the "WHY's" that calls are made that make these message boards valuable.
I spoke about the lack of a "RISK PREMIUM" being assinged to the OSX at those levels & called ABN AMRO's downgrade during the last days of Institutional Fund Managers Tax Loss Selling as a sham & it was.
I called that day a bottom and it was.
I explained "why" it was.
I called "when" it was.
And I even said OSX 82ish would be a fair value top to the coming rally and that it would only be a trading rally - (because of the still intact global recession) and where did it stall and where are we now ?
PS: I must have missed the posts about Quehubo max-margining the OSX intra-day at 58 ... why don't you link it for me 'bum (VBG) ?
...fwiw; anyone max-marging anything in this environment is a moron - period... that's casino junkie behavior; not savy trading.
Anyone max-margining any single sector here in this environment is a fool & I don't think anyone else would dispute that.... casino gambling, or savy stock trading ? you tell me....
Kudo's if you nailed a couple of daytrades in the NAZ...I was also chastised by the nitwits like Ed the Head & Cyndywllr et al - for shorting the NAZ from 3800 on down too back last Sept... would you like me to link a dozen or so posts about that ?
All in all; I think everyone knows when & where I stook on Oil & Gold. I also think the longterm charts concerning the macro calls I made on exiting Oils top and rotating to Golds bottom show the likeliehood of who outperformed who since last fall (VBG).
I'll take that "HAT TRICK" call that Kodiakbull$hi^^er posted from Aug 27th:
1. exit on the next OSX high
2. Rotate those profits on an average in basis into XAU 50 to 40.
3. Short the NAZ
Here's that reality check chart on that macro call again fwiw: and we'll use KODIAKBULL's start date of Aug 27th too !
READ 'EM & WEEP ~
siliconinvestor.com
Aug 27th 2000 to date:
HUI + 33%
(unhedged golds)
DOW - 7%
S&P - 20%
OSX - 47% (OUCH !)
NASDQ - 48%
for the last time.... please tell me how that macro portfolio weighted call from Black to Yellow Gold & short the NAZ was anything except "r-i-g-h-t-e-o-u-s" (VBG) !?!?!
So; now that we've sorted out fact from fiction & misrepresentation.... let's set the facts of history aside for a while and decide where you humps see the patch and the broad market going from here - okie dokie (VBG) ? |
