State of Technology
As I was browsing through some tech news emails that are piling up in my inbox, it seemed a belief I've proposed for ~ 1-2 years that tech is hitting a wall is finally being broadly accepted (along with consumer saturation but that's another subject). While the clips & links I post below aren't really a large sample, I do think they speak alot simply b/c the tone was prevalent throughout.
First we have "COMDEX: SIX BIG TRENDS THAT WILL BE THE SHOW'S BIG BUZZ" zdnet.com
It's a hilarious read simply b/c you could put any of the last few years dates on it & it'd seem timely. And, well, it's not just my opinion. If you click on the opinions from readers you get:
"Not much to get excited about here. No breakthroughs really."
"RE: Six big trends...more like six more gadgets. Oh, some will fly, most will fail, as usual. Then, they'll do it all again next year. It's years since I went to Comdex...sounds like it's getting more like the Consumer & Electronics show. "
"You don't seriously call this reporting do you. Any one who pays any attention to the world could have made up this yawner of a list. We who subscribe expect a lot better from our reporters."
This last comment is especially interesting. Was it really poor reporting? Or is it that there isn't much new & different out there that's really close to hitting consumer doors.
Then we move onto the next article:
Bye-bye broadband. We don't need you after all
You're out of work. Your bank account is running low. What's the first utility to go? For many, it's their DSL or cable modem connection. The assumption that once you become a broadband user you're hooked--for good--is suddenly coming under assault. Sure, many of us are addicted to high-speed access. I am. But apparently a lot of people are finding it an imminently expendable expense, unnecessary to such basic tasks as e-mail and regular Web surfing. What's more, those of us lucky enough to remain employed are finding we can do much of our online business through our swift at-work connections. The result: A growing number of service cancellations, and the latest woe for the already struggling high-speed Internet access industry. Go to the full story by John Borland.
zdnet.com
While many of us make money (or try to :) ) using our broadband connections, for most people, there simply isn't much economic benefit. I don't think I need to continue b/c the article summary pretty much tells the story....a cheap modem connection works for the majority of people who mostly use the net for casual browsing & email and who often have high access speed at work.
But, is it just me, again? Nah. The overriding negativity seems pretty apparent throughout the replies to the article. Broadband isn't a product for most peoples needs & until prices reach that of close to a dial up, growth is going to be slow.
Many recent articles simply seem like rehash of the same ol "things to come in the future" of 4 or 5 years ago. For example, "Why it's time to talk turkey about Internet telephony" VOIP? We were talking VOIP years ago. In fact, when I left an IT department, the company was moving into a new headquarters and we were working with Lucent to create the new network & the option of VOIP was considered (& rejected). Ironically, department heads selected Lucent b/c it was assured that Lucent would be around. (how times change) That was over 4 years ago. Sure it's advanced, more commonplace & more practical. So what? It's the same old same old from years ago. This is the headline for daily tech news? Are we seeing a common theme yet?
Here's more:
IBM spreads 'pixie dust' on new drives zdnet.com
-same ol' same ol' more capacity story
Is that a handheld on your wrist?
zdnet.com
summed up best by a quote "It seems a little bit redundant," she added. "The market doesn't need to think about another gadget to carry around with them."
Intel plan: Use gizmos to push PCs
zdnet.com
-lol, can't stop laughing....just as INTC announced recently they were exiting a part of such a consumer market b/c it was an utter failure for them.
-from another article "Consumer PC sales are at record lows, with IDC forecasting in the fourth quarter a year-over-year decline of 31 percent."
-gadgets for gadgets sake is not how the world spins in the long run.
-ya see PDA sales recently? exactly, people finally realized they're mostly useless and the one they have is probably more than enough (besides wireless phones starting to digest many of the features; see zdnet.com about HANDs new device amongst the many other cellular PDA's that've been popping up over the last year or so (another article on new wireless devices zdnet.com and zdnet.com ) I'm sure the out of work, over-paid but not for much longer techies will be running to pick up one of these at $500 bucks. (see HP holds back on pay raises zdnet.com ) After all, the productivity gained from PDA's is putting them out of work <gg>.
And, the great innovator Apple (hardy har)
Apple hints at 'breakthrough' device zdnet.com
-that "breakthrough" device ended up being a lame MP3 player that will add yet another failure to the list of Apple gadget failures
Speaking of technology and peoples views of the market, not to long ago I attended a wedding where I sat next to this young kid who worked in IT as a programmer. His views basically constituted that which you see analysts preaching to the masses on CNBS but with a slight better understanding than J6P who keeps their money with the institutions who dole out million dollar bonuses despite losing J6P’s money....and only for one reason: he at least contemplated market drivers. His theory is that the bottom was in & the market would take off again soon because a new invention would occur & this would pick up the rest of the industries, market, yadda, yadda. It was clear by that point that he'd drank a little too much Blodgett Kool-Aid (TM) so the conversation more or less terminated (and it was time to eat). Had I spent the time to respond, it'd would have been fairly straight forward: More often than not, when a new tech comes along that's going to be a major market driver a) it doesn't occur after you just finished deploying a new broad based technology (which we've been doing for well over a decade or 2 now) b) when it occurs, it doesn't pick up the "old techs"....more likely than not, it replaces them or makes them secondary. Furthermore, what once were the growth stocks either go out of business (ie. replaced) or they become part of a mature industry. We can see this throughout the history of our markets....the bubble stocks & hot techs....rarely ever regain their once lofty positions. Nifty Fifty anyone? (I’d agree with this opinion Message 16672143 )
And, perhaps, for a little balance, I'll let Bill Gates tell you all why I'm wrong:
zdnet.com
"Reason behind his prognostication: "The innovations of the past few years have accrued to the point where we're entering a new era of PC technology--what I call the 'digital decade,'" Gates told The Comdex Daily, the show's house organ. More and more "rich, inexpensive, connected devices"--his words--are making their ways into our hands, homes, and offices.
He has a point. The proliferation of Web-enabled cell phones, wireless PDAs, Web tablets, Internet appliances, wearable computers, and game consoles is reaching a critical mass. Teamed up with the Internet, broadband, and wireless access, they're swiftly shaping up into the next great wave of convenience and productivity-enhancing technology investment."
Hahahahahahahahaha, I can't stop laughing at that. I guess all these devices will help with the information overload we already have. My mistake, sorry. I again ask, what productive purposes will these serve? Outside of the buildout phase, technology is a means to an end and perhaps I'm missing the new "end" that is being created by this duplicative gadgetry.
Oh, it must be about greater productivity (whose gains are now coming into serious question....and I'll skip addressing the issue of what this productivity is geared toward). Again, I'll let the man speak for the opposition to inform you that Tablet PCs are the future. (see Why a tablet PC is in your future zdnet.com ) Yea, fancy PDAs. Am I the only person who knows people (including executives who have plenty of meetings, contacts, info to acquire, etc.) who quit using PDA's because they were actually less productive than the ol' paper & pen? Sorry, but I just don't see a PC on the go being that much more productive when we already have laptops & PDAs except in a few arenas.
And, if we are to take it that Comdex has served as a cultural icon of the growing importance & dominance of information technology over the last decades as suggested in this article ( zdnet.com ), what does it suggest that crowds were the lowest in a decade and the relative lack of excitement over the products "introduced" there? Did the terrorist keep everyone home? Or is there more to it than that (I'm arguing for the latter).
I understand addressing such issues won't help one trade in this market, but IMHO, provide for some interesting starting points on a discussion of exactly where this economy is headed (which, in the long run, will impact the market).
Chris
PS Zdnet is far from an authoritative voice on anything tech. But, it is somewhat generally representative of consumer trends in tech. The only reason I cite zdnet articles is b/c those just happened to be the ones I stumbled upon in going through my email. Furthermore, I apologize for spelling or grammatical errors or any lack of flow that may be present. This started out as a quick comment and turned into a longer statement and hasn’t been re-read or edited for editorial flow. But, alas, there is so much more to be said. I welcome any constructive feedback although given the length I doubt many read it. |
