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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: AllansAlias who wrote (21446)	11/17/2001 3:04:28 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (2) of 209892

Qcom is trading at a 40PE if it can indeed grow 30% for the next 5 years it could regain its old high. Qcom's core business of chips and IPR grew at 25% this quarter and they are sitting on a product turnover cycle not seen since windows 95. I am just as adamant that youll NEVER see Qcom at 12. Do not forget by 2004 Europe will convert all its phones from GSM to WCDMA, By 2002 Japan will convert to 1xrt/WCDMA, as the United states is now. this in essence means a complete turnover of 70% of mobile handsets in the next three-five years. In Korea the changeover is occuring at 2-3X the speed at which it was expected and by year end there will already be 12 million CDMA SUBS. QCOM also has the only chip that will allow system to system transfers GSM/CDMA EDGE/CDMA etc. thuis if it takes longer to adopt WCDMA they will have a monopoly in this market. Also 1xrt is the only viable 2.5 G system. Now I am not saying all this because I believe Qcom will go to 200 anytime soon, but there are no better Fundimental's in Tech that I know, and thinking it will trade at 12(they have 4 per share in cash, and another 1 billion coming from nextwave) is just ridiculous unless we are entering the K-WAVE and CIti group will be at 8 and CSCO bankrupt. If we are wrong and we are entering a new bull phase(which I doubt) Qcom could easily be at 100 by next year, and still be sporting a 40-50PE. They are expected to make 1.20 next year if they can make 1.50 then 80 is 50 times trailing by this time next year. Again I am not saying its going to happen, but Qcom is still one of the most misunderstood business model's arround. Whille people run arround themselves to BUY NOKIA they dont get that Qcom is where the money ends up.

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