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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: TimeToMakeTheInvs who wrote (6425)11/17/2001 5:30:33 PM
From: t2  Read Replies (2) of 99280
 
Louis Rukeyser's show Fri. night was about the same, for the most part "the bull is here and for real." Lazlo Birinyi was one of the panelists (and is a big proponent of money flow as a market indicator). He is someone I pay attention to, he called for a further downside last fall when most of the other analysts were calling for an end to it.

The ONLY problem I have with the money flow predictor for a revival of the bull market is that the move to the market has already happened from the mid 90s to March 2000 period.
Such a large part of the population put their money into mutual funds/stocks....creating the big bubble by transfering large amounts of retirement savings accounts into the market. Now many people don't even want to talk about the stock market. The liquidity could really help this market in the long term (6months to 2 years) if NEW retirement funds money still keeps going into the market. Those large lump sum transfers are probably a thing of the past.

I actually believe the liquidity story but the above is just some of the concerns that pop up in my head every once in a while. I do think the large funds in bond/money markets have the potential to create the same effect as we saw in the late 1990s. In addition, the increased interest in hedge or short funds during the decline in the markets could work for the bulls as well---possibly having created a bubble in one sense (i am not talking about valuations here).

Just not 100% convinced of the liquidity story (maybe 80%).

I also read Cramer has been pretty accurate on technology since last summer. He has been saying to stay away from technology since mid 2000..especially telco tech (NT, CSCO) etc..
Now, he seems very bullish on technology stocks although a little less on the telco equipment ones like NT, Lucent types.
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