Yeah, there are signs, on charts of the Nas, SOX, and AMAT, that we are at (or just below) strong resistance or "congestion" areas. And the % moves on most tech stocks, have reached the max that happened in previous bear rallies.
However.....the chances that this is not just another bear rally, are better now than in the January and May-June rallies, because we started from much lower levels, and more time has passed. And late September felt a lot more like capitulation, than the January or April lows did.
So, I just don't know. And, actually, I don't much care. If we break through all the resistance just above us, and go up and up, I get richer quicker. If we go down, even retesting the September lows, I have cash (and am willing to use margin), so I'll buy more, wait, and get richer later. The only scenario where I don't get richer (sooner or later), is if the Nas goes to 1000 and stays there for years. That scenario is, I think, still very unlikely. Even if the Nas stays in a range, say 1000 to 2000, for many years (a lot more likely scenario than going to 1000 and flatlining), I'll still get steadily richer, as I go to 40% cash when the Nas is at 2000, and 40% margin when the Nas is at 1000.
I'm getting really tired of this Bear Market, range-trading requires a lot more attention than LTB&H. |
