Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis

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To: TREND1 who wrote (24393)	11/18/2001 10:43:54 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) of 52237

The site will stay up though may be neglected a bit while I am on the road, getting a new ISP hooked up etc. Still other than my daily charts, as long as I do a maintenance run before I go, it should be fine as it doesn't take that much work. I have entertained the thought of running it out of my home but right now I use a third party provider. If I get somewherre I can get a T3 line to my house, only then would I run it from home. As for the PE way of investing. It is only something to keep in mind when buying. I think most on this thread use TA for the actual buying and selling. Still keeping that PE in mind enables one to have a rough idea of how long a trend can go. There was an excellent article at the PIMCO site where he points out how much of a rally is possible given the current PE ratios for the whole market. He actually claims we are near fair value though at the high end. Therefore with PE expansion completed due to low interest rates, the only way prices could go up further is by earnings growth and since earnings growth will be lower, he doesnt see more than an average of 4% a year. If inflation creeps in, then it will be lower since PE must contract. If deflation comes instead, we are dead meat. As for trend following. I agree if there is a trend. What happens with your linear regression method if we go into a protracted long term trading range as I expect down the road. At times like that. Systems like mine and Don's work better. Different methods for different times. Chris has touched on this a few times. One should have a trading range method and a trending market method ready at all times and then the trick is deciding which kind of market you are in. Good Luck, Lee

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