| No, because I am more disciplined than that. My plan only works if I stick to the plan and don't let myself be influenced by the waves of alternating panic buying and panic selling. If I do, then, you're right, my wealth goes off to Money Heaven. The plan: If the Nas goes from 2000 to 3000 (or 4000 or whatever), I stay at 40% cash. Notice, I'm still getting richer, as my long positions (60%) go up, and I steadily sell them in increments, to maintain a 40% cash level. And a lot of my long positions are LEAPs, now in-the-money, so they go up by a larger % than the market does. Yes, I give up a lot of the upside (more and more, the more the Bubble reinflates), but I don't like the risk/reward of being 100% long the market, given current macro conditions and valuations. And the more the market goes up, the more cautious I get, because I recognize that the risk/reward balance is tilting steadily against me. And I don't start using margin, until/if the market is retesting the September lows. 40% margin only happens at Nas 1000. |
