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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Ron Bower who wrote (1425)	6/27/1997 8:37:00 AM
From: Jim Garrison	of 78715

Ron: I also own NATS - one of my 'fast grower' (a la Peter Lynch) stocks. IMO this is a growth stock rather than a value pick. It currently trades at a 3.2 PE while growing over 30% per year! I do NAIC SSG (stock selection guide) analysis and currently have: Projected eps growth: 38% (my estimate) Historical 5 yr avg pe: 8.6 - 3.2 Current pe: 3.2 Upside/Downside: 61:1 Proj Tot Return: 70%/year --------------------------- The PSR is .2 vs 1.0 for the industry. Institutional holdings are 0.0%; Insiders own 47% --------------------------- I also have a full position and won't purchase more. It is down from where I bought it at 9. I'm holding long for a possible 10 bagger (maybe when institutions discover it). I believe they had a bum earnings report last qtr based, in part, on expenses of consolidating the investment bank acquisition. It appeared to me mgmt threw everything but the kitchen sink into the charges. IMO reason for recent drop. As indicated above, insiders own half the stock. Its price is fairly volitile 4.75<6.25<9.75 in last 220 trading days - technically it just nudged above 50 day emva and is holding just above it. My technical indicators have it on a sell. Will be interested to see what happens next few quarters. Big question is whether it can resume earnings growth at anywhere near historical levels (5 year annualized at 60% according to AAII data). My opinion only. Good Investing, jim garrison

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