You make alot of mentions of the New Ec, but neither I, nor many people, really believed in the whole concept. The few that did are now badly battered and licking their wounds.
It is for that reason I remain optimistic. Bubbles burst constantly, with most smaller than this one, but usually with the same result...recession, stagnation, recovery. The size of the initial bubble is less important than the reaction afterward.
As for 9/11 being a stand alone event, it certainly was. It is unlikely to have occurred in any other country but the US due to our previously lax internal flight security. As for machines being "weaponized"...well, that's a consistent theme of the arms race. It is also something that is constantly dealt with.
And finally, as for the "theme" of terrorism on a larger scale...I'll wait and see. I still believe this was pure luck on their part, was only 25% successful (based on other thwarted hijackings and the fact that they chose their targets poorly), and that this "network" will perform other acts that are less "eventful".
Little known to US citizens (but known to most Israelis and anyone like myself who has spent time there) is the sheer inadequacy of terrrorism as a real tool of terror. Most bombers blow themselves up while inflicting little damage, and certainly not as much as they'd hoped if they are even moderately successful.
History has shown that most terror organizations, even when highly structured, are manned by poorly educated, poorly led, and poorly informed foot soldiers. The previously thwarted plots in LAX and the Phillipines are examples of this. Even so, the occasional "big one" slips through (Munich, Brighton, Tel Aviv). Terror is also an arms race, but one the terrorists usually lose.
Unravelling of an economy as a theme is something we have disagreed on, and will continue to disagree on. As another noted, interest rates rose in the past week. This is primarily due to refinancings (such as my own), rather than new purchases. The question is - will the refinancings improve people's positions, will the extra money be used productively, and will some of it be saved? I vote that all will occur. Interest rates will rise through the new year, then fall again as we settle into the winter doldrums. |
