Thanks, Fox.
Here is the full text I provided to them of my three picks:
1. Sepracor (SEPR): My number one pick, and my biggest personal position. I've owned it since it traded in single digits (pre-split), but I believe it still has a long way to go. The best short and medium-term pipeline in biotech. SEPR makes (patented) improvements in existing drugs, which is a lot less risky than developing brand new drugs. They had a rough period when some of their partnered drugs ran into problems, but the drugs they are developing themselves are progressing very nicely. If R&D for new drug development was capitalized, they'd already be profitable. This is a stock to tuck away and look at again in four or five years.
2. Intermune (ITMN): (My second-biggest holding) This is essentially a one-drug play, so it's risky by its nature. They are trying to demonstrate that their marketed drug (gamma-interferon) also works for a progressive, fatal disease called idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. If their current trial is successful (I give them odds of 75%), this will be a $200+ stock; if it fails, a $15 stock. I like the risk/reward.
3. Aviron (AVIR): This is a regulatory play. They are developing a nasal 'flu vaccine (no shots!) that I believe works even better than the traditional vaccine. Their stock crashed when a FDA Advisory Committee raised concerns about some safety issues. I believe these concerns will be resolved without further trials, but a big short position here indicates that not everyone agrees with me. Not currently a major holding for me, but typical of the sort of stock I like in a basket of biotechs.
Peter
P.S. Currently ITMN is no longer my second biggest holding - it's been overtaken by IGEN which apparently had some interesting news at the trial last week relating to Roche's firing their in-house counsel for hanky-panky with the documents. |
