[Deployment Research]
Pat,
First of all, thank you:>BTW, you're always so straight and direct, these debates are a pleasure.<
Likewise.
Now on to some publicized statements from EE that reflect some of my thoughts and why I say what I say:
Many rural local loops were far longer than the 18,000 feet from the
central office most ILECs claimed-indeed, some copper pairs extended
as far as 40,000 feet from a central office or digital loop carrier. And lines were far "dirtier" than anyone let on in public, with undocumented bridge taps and other inconsistencies. When customers requested ISDN service on a mature loop, the ILEC almost always had to send out a craftsman to analyze the quality of the individual line.
Yes, Toto, there is a crisis in the local loop.
"You have to realize the craftspeople talk about weeks to analyze one line for ISDN," said Mike Wodopian, vice president of communication
markets at Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (Austin, Texas), "and they say it will be tougher for the DSLs-particularly asymmetric DSL. We've stayed active in subscriber-line circuits because the uptake is predictable. But having been through the ISDN wringer on technology push vs. applications pull, we remain very skeptical of the time frames talked about for DSL service deployment."
David Helfrich, vice president of marketing and sales at DSL startup
Copper Mountain Networks Inc. (Mountain View, Calif.), would have
every reason to minimize problems. Nevertheless, he reports that Pacific Bell craftspeople tell him that "what was true for ISDN becomes far more serious for DSL." Copper Mountain is lucky: "At least we are working with a mid-speed version of DSL based on 2B1Q coding, giving us the expertise base from ISDN," said Helfrich. "But this is a problem everyone in the DSL community will be facing."
As if line quality wasn't enough to hobble DSL, regulatory uncertainties following passage of the 1996 Telecommunications Reform Act make it uncertain precisely which type of service providers can offer DSL services. Many startups boast of selling DSL access multiplexers into concentration points as small as an ISP point of presence (POP). Midspeed DSLs that are concentrated on a leased T1 line could certainly be offered by an ISP or competitive LEC (CLEC). But high-speed services requiring true central-office termination, such as ADSL, are a different story.
ILECs are supposed to "unbundle" the local-loop physical plant, allowing ISPs and CLECs to install central-office equipment directly on the local loop. In some instances, this might put ISP or CLEC equipment physically on-site at an ILEC's central office. Analysts expect ILECs to drag their heels in implementing the unbundling procedures. Others fret that ILECs may open up the copper plant, but threaten to sue an alternative carrier if a customer's DSL service has a negative impact on anyone else's service.
That threat is real-particularly with higher-speed services. But Krista Jacobsen, senior engineer with Amati Communications Inc. (Sunnyvale, Calif.), insists that "a T1 line in a binder group would be far more likely to wipe out an ADSL service than vice versa." Twisted pairs are carried in clusters of 20 to 25 "binder groups," and the chances of spectral incompatibilities across a group rises with every additional DSL service in one cluster.
ISP split
Bobbi Murphy, senior broadband analyst at Dataquest Inc. (San Jose,
Calif.), expects a two-way split among ISPs: Smaller ones won't want to build out their own cable plants or place equipment in a telco central office; they will focus on minimal dial-up services. A smaller percentage will build their own facilities and become de facto CLECs. That scenario makes a handful of ISPs potential purchasers of DSL equipment, to be sure, but it's a far smaller number than some OEMs are betting on.
"Keep in mind that the CLECs and ISPs also are frozen out of the digital loop carrier [DLC]," said M. Niel Ransom, vice president and general manager of access and network management at Alcatel Network Systems(Raleigh, N.C.). "Many loops never terminate in a central office, but in a DLC box in a remote site. It is not clear that an alternative carrier could ever get access to the DLC."
The upshot? Analysts at TeleChoice, Dataquest and other market-research firms who were once gung-ho on DSL warn hardware
suppliers to pay attention to factors that could cool carrier interest. Dataquest's Murphy went so far as to suggest, in a Supercomm speech, that "the bridge to the 21st century will be an analog one." Even committed optimists like Amati Communications' vice president of
marketing Benjamin Berry said that DSL services are unlikely this year. "ADSL rollouts clearly will be coming next year at the earliest," Berry said. "We've learned a lot in trials, but the problems of copper plant are real ones."
Pat, I would be interested in your response to points made in this article. Even Berry of AMTX says next year at the earliest....
Mike |
