Analyses of Handset Market Share in Q3 2001 and Prior Quarters and Years
After examining todays numbers from Gartner and looking in the archives:
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Tracking Quarter to Quarter Market Share of the Top 5
Q100 Q200 Q300 Q400 Q101 Q201 Q301
Nokia 27.9% 27.5% 30.6% 33.9% 35.3% 34.8% 33.4%
Motorola 16.0% 15.6% 13.3% 12.7% 13.2% 14.8% 15.7%
Ericsson 11.5% 10.3% 9.7% 8.7% 6.8% 8.3% 8.0%
Samsung - 5.5% - - 4.8% 6.8% 7.5%
Siemens 5.5% 5.5% 8.6% 6.9% 6.9% 7.9% 7.2%
Nokia Market Share Quarter by Quarter
Last Seven Quarters:
% Q100 Q200 Q300 Q400 Q101 Q201 Q30
___
35.5 / \_____
35,0 / 34.5 / 34.0 / \__
33.5 /
33.0 /
32.5 /
32.0 /
31.5 /
31.0 /
30.5 /
30.0 /
29.5 /
29.0 /
28.5 /
28.0 ____ /
27.5 \ /
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Tracking Year to Year Market Share
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001YTD
Nokia 20.1% 24.3% 26.9% 30.6% 34.0%
Motorola 28.8 23.2 16.9% 14.6% 17.1%
Ericsson 16.2 14.4 10.5% 10.0% 7.7%
Siemens 2.5 3.3 4.6% 6.5% 7.2%
Samsung 3.6 4.2 6.2% 5.0% 7.0%
Matsushita 5.7 8.1 5.5% 5.2% -
Mitsubishi 2.4 3.1 4.2% - -
Sources for above statistics: Herschel Shostek for 1997 and 1998 and Gartner Dataquest for 1999 through 2000
Nokia Market Share Year to Year
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001YTD
35 /34 /
33 /
32 /
31 /
30 /
29 /
28 /
27 /
26 /
25 /
24 /
23 /
22 /
21 /
20 /
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Nokia Market Share v. Next Nearest Competitor
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001YTD
Nokia .7X 1.05X 1.6X 2.1X 2.0X
Motorola 1.4X .95X ,6X >.5X .5X
Nokia Market Share v. Their Leading Asian Competitor
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001YTD
Nokia 5.6X 5.8X 4.4X 6.1X 4.86X
Samsung .2X .2X >,3X <.2X .21X
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According to Gartner's report published today:
Message 16680040
* Worldwide mobile phone shipments totaled 94.4 million units in the third quarter of 2001, a 10 percent decline from the same period last year.
* Global shipments increased from 2nd Quarter. Second Quarter shipments were 89.76 million units (compared with 97.8m units in the same period the previous year).
3rd Quarter 2001 Results from Gartner
Worldwide Mobile Terminal Unit Shipment Estimates for 3Q01 (000)
3Q01 Unit 3Q01 Market 3Q00 Unit 3Q00 Market
Shipments Share (%) Shipments Share (%)
Nokia 31,552 33.4 32,058 30.6
Motorola 14,770 15.7 13,903 13.3
Ericsson 7,532 8.0 10,100 9.7
Samsung 7,108 7.5 4,506 4.3
Siemens 6,769 7.2 8,966 8.6
Others 26,633 28.2 35,070 33.5
Total Market 94,364 100.0 104,603 100.0
Source: Gartner Dataquest (November 19, 2001
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My observations and analyses of the report with some historical data from the archives:
Message 16680088
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Comments from Tero Kuittinen Today
Nokia’s camera phone was launched today as expected - and gauging the response is getting hairy. The shipment schedule for 2Q 2002 was a clear disappointment, but the feature richness of the unit is terrific. The problem for Nokia is that Ericsson’s T-68 color-display model started shipping this month and may get 5-6 month market lead over the Nokia 7650. This opening is what Ericsson’s phone unit needed at this point. Another question is whether it’s better to get to market first or to do it with an optimised product for the full year 2002. The specs of Ericsson’s model don’t stand up comparison to Nokia in features like display quality - but the T-68 weighs far lower than the more ambitious 7650’s. At this point, I would expect the markets to start sweating over Nokia’s 1Q 2002, so there’s probably going to be downward pressure in coming months. Ericsson might benefit from its suddenly brighter 1Q 2002 outlook. I would expect the valuation gap here to shrink in coming months.
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Today's Gartner Dataquest Press Release on Q3 Handset Sales
Message 16680040
Comments by Ben Woods of Gartner Dataquest are prominent. Ben moved to Gartner Dataquest about 6 months ago. He spent the previous year at Mobile LifeStreams, reporting to "The Buck". He was pretty sharp before he did that stint <g>. Truth be known, he probably still is.
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FT on Today's gartner Dataquest Report
news.ft.com
Nothing original here. Maija Pesola simply quotes or paraphrases the Gartner Report.
The headline "Decline Steepens In Mobile Handset Market" seems somewhat misleading, since handset sales were up Q3 from Q2, more than what most pundits anticipated, which makes the Gartner Report somewhat old hat.
Maija quotes homeboy Ben Woods and never mentions the more senior Dataquest analyst Brian Prohm.
It is rather obvious that Maija read Gartner's press release, not the full report.
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Wireless NewsFactor on Today's Gartner Dataquest Report
This analyses based on today's Gartner Report is head and shoulders above FT's rehash.
The old news, headline, is not improved, however.
I guess we need a reminder that handset product cycles are transitioning, the economy still sucks, and circuit-switched voice and data are transitioning to circuit-switched voice and packet-switched data, then all-IP packet-switched voice everything.
>> Report: Mobile Phone Sales Dive in Q3
Jay Wrolstad
Wireless NewsFactor
November 19, 2001
Finland's Nokia remained the leader in global mobile phone sales but recorded a slight decline in shipments from the third quarter last year.
Given the worldwide economic woes in the information technology sector, it should come as no surprise that global sales of mobile phones dropped 10 percent in the third quarter from the year-ago period as reported by industry analyst firm Gartner Dataquest.
Phone shipments totaled 94.4 million units in the third quarter of 2001, down from 104.6 million in the same period last year, Gartner Dataquest's Mobile Communications Worldwide research group reported. Among the top five vendors, three posted declines in shipments, with Nokia retaining its top position.
Demand Drops in Europe
While vendors have enjoyed strong demand for mobile phones for years, Gartner said, the industry has experienced a difficult transition. Analysts cited a variety of factors that caused industry expectations for worldwide mobile terminal consumption in 2001 to fall.
"The mobile phone industry has been impacted by repeated delays in the availability of general packet radio service (GPRS) terminals and the effect of the widespread economic downturn on regions where mobile connection growth has traditionally been high, such as Latin America," said Bryan Prohm, a senior analyst in Gartner's Mobile Communications Worldwide research group.
"Most important has been the astonishingly lackluster performance of the Western European market, a region that accounted for about a third of annual mobile terminal sales in 1999 and 2000," said Ben Wood, also a senior analyst with the Mobile Communications Worldwide research group. "In an unprecedented development, shipments actually fell in Western Europe from the second quarter to the third quarter of 2001. This was contrary to all past trends and is stark evidence of the market's woes."
Big Three Hold Positions
Finland's Nokia remained the leader in global mobile phone sales but recorded a slight decline in shipments from the third quarter last year, based in large part on poor demand in the Western European market, Gartner analysts said.
Motorola, with its third consecutive quarterly increase in sales, took second place, followed by Sweden's Ericsson. Korea-based Samsung and Siemens AG of Germany rounded out the top five.
According to analysts, Nokia shipped 31.5 million handsets in the third quarter, down from 32 million in 2000, for a 33.4 percent market share; Motorola reported sales of 14.7 million units, up from 13.9 million a year ago, for 15.7 percent market share; and Ericsson sold 7.5 million phones in the quarter, down from 10.1 million a year ago, with its market share now at 8 percent.
Motorola Resurgence?
"Nokia, for the first time, has one of the older product portfolios among the leading manufacturers, a development that undoubtedly resulted in the loss of some global system for mobile communications (GSM) market share to competitors with more contemporary designs," Prohm said.
Gartner analysts said Motorola's strong performance follows the company's efforts to be more of a global enterprise, encompassing all technologies and regions.
Sony Deal Boosts Ericsson
Samsung edged closer to the traditional "big 3" vendors, trading places with Siemens for the number four worldwide ranking based on third-quarter sales of 7.1 million phones (7.5 percent market share), up from 4.5 million phones in the year-ago period. Siemens fell to fifth place with sales of 6.7 million units in the quarter, compared with 8.9 million a year ago; the company's market share dropped to 7.2 percent from 8.6 percent.
Gartner analysts said Samsung continued to increase its market share in Western Europe, and the company did well with the launch of TDMA (time division multiple access) and GSM products in the Americas.
Despite lagging sales, Ericsson has made some moves to improve its position, Gartner reported. "Ericsson has introduced a range of novel handsets, many of which have received positive reviews and seem eagerly anticipated by consumers," Prohm said. "The official launch of the Sony Ericsson Mobile Communications joint venture in the fourth quarter of 2001 will generate momentum to propel Ericsson back into double-digit market share and firmly into the coveted third-place position worldwide." <<
- Eric - |
