Hi, Cush - Another twopenny theory on what's happening...
09/11 interrupted the natural flow of market events. There's usually a big post-summer upswing in volume, and market plays as the funds start picking their candidates for the spring runup - ie., tax-sheltered investments.
September is usually bad, October's better, and November's often the best, until we get into tax-loss selling.
That whole process (if my guess is right) was put into hibernation from Sept 11 until the last couple of weeks. Even Greenspan's gargantuan liquidity pumps couldn't suck the money out of a market that was waiting to see what was going to happen, and how bad it would get.
Now, the pendulum has swung the other way: two months have been lost to fear, massive amounts of money are leaving the sidelines, and the springtime bets are finally being made.
My guess is that this will be a short and sweet repeat of the pre - Y2K euphoria. The guesses are centered on which stocks will outperform as the economy moves out of recession in Q2/Q3 2002.
I think this run will have some staying power, barring some cataclysmic international event: in that case, the markets will shut like a clam.
That's my story, and I'm stickin' to it.>g< But like Rob says, just don't be standing when the music stops...
Regards,
Jim |
