Zeev's Turnips - No Politics Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (6831)	11/20/2001 6:23:26 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) of 99280

Zeev: Probabilities now favor a series of lower highs from our peak until we get a resolution of the bear market which will likely take more time than one month now IMO. We have the "new bull market" crowd appearing and a nice reaction high here or yet to come and this fat will take time to work off yet again, exogenous events notwithstanding. Your alternative model makes more sense in the current climate IMO. You may well get a low in December but I don't think it will be the final low. The market will have to get slaughtered from this day on to get a final low in December. And no cyclical bull market has started in the second year of a Presidency in December of the prior year. At least since 1962, the earliest such a rally has begun is February. I don't know if the Presidential cycle is in your model but it is in the back of my mind here. I think Afghanistan is now viewed by the market as closer to Kosovo. Market views Afghanistan as defanged. So surprises will be to the downside. Bin Laden's capture/death may well cause a spike but the issue is whether it will be from lower levels. I agree with you that the market has assumed the demise of Bin Laden and his network.

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