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Strategies & Market Trends : Commodities - The Coming Bull Market
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To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (936)11/20/2001 7:48:48 PM
From: craig crawford  Read Replies (2) of 1643
 
i don't believe the metals are totally monolithic. i believe lead has bottomed and can be bought on pullbacks, but gold has not. silver is getting closer to a bottom, but not there yet either. some other metals like aluminum, copper, zinc etc may have bottomed (or not) but might retest those levels.

despite the recent rally in the stock market i think there is one more shoe to drop first, so i would look for a retest on some of the metals within the next few months along with another decline in the stock market. i would be interested if the stock market made new lows but some metals held their lows. some sort of positive divergence, like we've seen in lead. notice it bottomed in july and didn't make a lower low like some of the other metals after the 9/11 attacks.

YTD Lead
lme.co.uk

i do believe we are only months away from a major bottom that will last for years. i dunno if it's one month away, two months or six, but i think a solid bottom will be in in less than a year. i know that's not very specific, but many commodities have been going down for decades. trying to pinpoint the exact moment is impossible, and not even necessary. all that is necessary is to realize that the major long-term trend is on the verge of reversing and one should allocate investments accordingly.

of course this is all just my opinion, no one really knows.
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