It's Official! (from the Worden report TC2000)
They're telling us it's “official.” This is a bull market. Let the record show.
The evidence? The Nasdaq has climbed 20% from the low. A 20% move constitutes a bull market consecrated by none other than…why, the powers that be, of course. Imagine my embarrassment, having been active in the market all the way back in the 1950s. In all the time that has passed, no one ever told me that a 20% move from a low constitutes a bull market. It is something no one can take away from us. If this mighty bull market ends today, it will go down in history as one of those great historical events. If it should now retreat to where it started, the decline would be a bear market. That is, if it happened before yearend, we would have had a bull market and a bear market all within less than a four-month period. Wow! But that's not all. The decline earlier in the year qualified as a bear market. Is it possible we shall have two bear markets and a bull market - all within the same year? But wait. It gets better. Did you know that we had a bull market in the second quarter of 2000 when the Nasdaq rallied about 40% from low to high. And we all thought we were in a bear market. Little did we know that history was being written at a breakneck pace.
Please refer to the weekly chart of the Nasdaq (COMPQX) so that you can get a look at the entire bear market in perspective. Now, notice that last trivial little rally that started two months ago. Look at it in the contest of the awesome bear market that took the Nasdaq down from 5000 to 1500. Is that little rally supposed to qualify as a bull market?
Of course, not only the Nasdaq, but the Dow and the SP-500 all qualify for bull market status based on one rally from a hugely oversold condition. This is the stuff that is foisted on the public.
This is a holiday week and isn't likely to tell us a lot. From a disruptive point of view, it is the worst week of the year, since the holiday falls on Thursday, rendering Friday as useless as ice skates on a pond in August. Today was mildly negative by just about any measure. -DW |
