Bambs, CSCO, INTC, DELL, IBM, others... there's bound to be a turn-around in demand, sooner or later. As Craig Barrett once said, there are three general rules about recessions (and forgive me for butchering these, but they are off the top of my head).
1) Recessions always end.
2) You can't save your way out of a recession.
3) When a recession ends, there are some winners, and some losers.
Regarding number 3, which one will INTC be? Barrett is certainly not saving his way out... Intel's 2001 spending in higher than any previous year. When the recession ends, what will Intel's product lines be like? Will they be stronger going out than they were going in?
These are the questions you should be asking, instead of looking at indicators like P/E ratios. Some of us here believe that Intel has what it takes to move forward. Some might argue that this justifies the high stock price. Keep in mind that if Intel were making now what they made in 2000, the stock would be considered low. What we're wondering is what it will take for Intel to make money like they did last year. Sometimes, that takes a little more analysis than one would give the average stock, and this thread has the benefit of analyzing it in this way for quite some time.
So is this a nerd thread? Certainly. But I bet even the slowest of us has a better idea of how the stock could turn out than you.
wbmw |
