Re: Who knows or cares. At least it's a safe bet that they will get there again which is something you Spam-Droids will never realize at amd.
What a pathetic non-response. Intel Capital came into existence right near the beginning of the biggest capital orgy of 1990-2000 (and probably of 1980-2000-- I don't think the biotech bubble of the early 90s involved so much cash chasing trash). I do not think Intel being able to make money in a giant bubble, which was fueled not insubstantially by the dividend-payout-avoidance-strategy it and other large companies were pursuing at the time, is some tremendous indicator of ability to make money.
For that matter, your whole statement is rather silly. In general, it is extremely difficult to make large percentage returns on capital. If it were not, Warren Buffet would not be admired, and there would be many much richer people in this world. The assumption that "it's a safe bet" that Intel will get a $4B yearly investment gains again is one that I don't think any non-ignoramus would make (unless Intel had $38B invested). The only "safe" thing to project would be a market average return on its investments. And, just a friendly hint for you, there are around 3000 mbas minted every year from top-notch b-schools. I guarantee you that for each gem that comes out, there is at least one flunkie, and this one too will be in the employ of a substantial corporation for at least some portion of his or her career.
You can hide behind your veneer of calling anyone who doesn't genuflect at the alter of Intel an AMDdroid, but I consider myself an objective investor. It is you who is the fedayeen, obsessed with the mantra of “There is no God but Intel; and Andy is Its Prophet” and the necessity of long-term faith in Its Grace. With Paul and other lifers who's pensions and life stories are tied to this company, I can understand the devotion. But, with unaffiliated people, I see only the delusion and desperate grasping of a betrayed wife.
What I see in Intel today is a stock trading at 50 times 2002 projected earnings, four times peak-year sales, flailing in its attempts to participate in poorly conceived and generally unsuccessful new business ventures. I fail to see a long-term investment opportunity. I also fail to see AMD as a long-term investment, but it, at least, continues to provide a (relatively) reliable way to make money from a seemingly immutable cycle of love-hate gyrations.
-Eric |
