Apollo,
re: The Wireless Data Tornado(es) - When, What, and Who
Back on the 4th of July you commented on "what looks to be a drawn out timeframe for 2.5G and 3G adoption" and you asked ...
>> Opinions of the Thread???
1. When will the tornado(es) take place?
2. What are some of the other hidden software/hardware initiatives that will emerge, that I have neglected to mention, and on which we should keep our eye focused? <<
We all know that there is no tornado yet.
But ...
We just witnessed the most wireless oriented COMDEX ever.
From Gates to Chambers to Ollila, we heard from the podium primarily about the wireless future and the convergence of the desktop with mobile and fixed wireless data or what our friend Cha2 calls the "Wireless Internet Nexus" (he can correct me if I didn't get that appellation quite right).
[I really have a hard time justifying Qualcomm's lack of presence at COMDEX or total absence fro CEBIT earlier this year - they should be, IMO, positioning themselves more publicly at key (wireless) IT events, and not just at the technology conferences sponsored by the financial houses that they do a great job with.]
In addition Nokia followed up COMDEX with a knockout "Mobile Internet Conference" in Barcelona, Spain, and released more products, and more diversified products (all wireless data oriented), at one time, then they have since they reinvented themselves in 1992, and more than any other company associated with wireless that I can think of ever doing. Next week Nokia will host the financial analysts in NYC for their annual "Capital Market Days" extravaganza, and open the kimono even further. This is "Rolling Thunder" at its finest, and probably will help to dispel the notion held by some that their 20,000 employees engaged in R&D, simply design faceplate covers for mobile phones.
I am really starting to get excited about the pending tornado(es), I am sensing that we perhaps should be looking for more than one tornado - actually tornados in different overlapping domains. Certainly our favorite gorillas and kings will play in the game(s), but potentially there will be others and these "candidates" are, IMO the critters we should be looking for.
We can hold Qualcomm safely because it is an enabling technology gorilla in its own domain, will receive royalty revenue outside of that domain, and potentially could play player in other games in the wireless data future.
I personally hold Nokia (and watch it closely) because it is a profitable clear cut king in the largest consumer electronics market in the world (wireless or non-wireless), both in terms of units sold and total value.
I look at Qualcomm and Nokia along with Microsoft, Intel, and Cisco, as a "basket" for the coming tornado(s) that each will play a role in. I shouldn't neglect Siebel either because their is a wireless CRM game afoot as well.
... but I already hold all those previously mentioned.
I was sorely tempted to add Ericsson to my "basket" a month ago when Ericsson dipped below 4 for the first time in years and clearly offered an entry point par excellence.
Ericsson is clearly the best infra play on the street, and has close to 2x market share across technologies. Several factors deterred me. In the wireless data game that is about to unfold, Ericsson is shaping up to be a Prince. They have negligible market share in cdmaOne/cdma2000 and while they have contracts approximating 40% market share in 3GSM, Nokia is nipping at their heels with 35%, and in addition the "lumpy" infrastructure market is terribly depressed. The Financial Times had an interesting article on this subject titled "Pick Up Phones When Networks Down", quoting Lehman Brothers as saying:
Ericsson and Nokia have around 40 percent and 35 percent market share in 3G contracts respectively. But the Swedish company is exposed to all other market technologies compared to Nokia's focus on GSM/UMTS, an addressable market set to grow from 62 percent to 80 percent in the next 5 years or so. Overall market growth will be slower.
I also missed an opportunity to add Openwave recently at a very attractive entry point when they missed earnings. I placed a GTC limit buy but OPWV scooted quickly to the upside with the general market rally. This is probably just as well, since I really haven't done adequate DD on OpenWave, and Nokia (number two to OPWV in WAP servers, and number two to them in microbrowsers) has just released a Java Delivery Server, and is offering a WAP 2 browser module as part of it 60 series platform, as well as collaborating with AOL Time Warner (remember Netscape) on a browser. I'm not sure that AOL Time Warner isn't a play in itself.
Fuel cells have been discussed here for the last week and that's definitely an arena to watch and there is another arena shaping up in smart antennas, with ArrayComm looking like an early leader.
On the messaging platform side we have traditional players like CMG, Comverse, and Logica (with Nokia playing in that game as well). This morning we heard of another company in this space (MessageVine) that was just BREW certified by Qualcomm and AWS just contracted with a company called InphoMatch, a wireless messaging application provider I had never heard of that provides cross-carrier, cross-technology platform messaging:
Message 16682652
In Fixed wireless (WLAN) Cisco is a player as well as 3COM, but there is another player (Intersil) I haven't really
<< hidden software/hardware initiatives that will emerge >>
At least a dozen key initiatives have formed this year and those of course are getting rolled up into this OMAI Glaobal Power Play (Open Standards v. Proprietary Standards).
I mean to back track on the individual initiatives and sort out the players.
Meantime at this juncture we should probably segmenting the big wide converging wired wireless world down into smaller chunks.
The breezes are blowing. Keep an eye peeled (all).
Over 1 Billion wireless data messages a day are being transmitted (all chunks of text) and shortly they will be multimedia.
<< best to all on the 4th >>
Best to all on Thanksgiving,
- Eric - |
